In accordance with a slide presentation from the Senate Management Fund—an excellent PAC tied to outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky—Cornyn is at present shedding to scandal-plagued Texas Lawyer Common Ken Paxton by a median of 17 share factors.
Within the presentation, SLF famous that it could want as a lot as $70 million to assist Cornyn survive the first. They view this as a needed expenditure as they worry Paxton may lose a basic election to a Democrat.
In accordance with one slide within the deck, SLF offered polling exhibiting Cornyn leads Democratic Senate candidate Collin Allred by 6 factors in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, whereas Paxton trails Allred by 1 level. What’s extra, SLF stated that if Cornyn loses the first to Paxton, Republicans may have to spend as a lot as $250 million to prop up Paxton in a basic election matchup.
Texas has been reliably Republican in presidential years, and no Democrat has received a Senate seat within the state since 1988. Nevertheless, in a midterm with President Donald Trump in workplace, the seat may show extra aggressive.
Again in 2018—Trump’s first midterm yr—Republicans barely held on to Texas’ Senate seat, with Republican Ted Cruz defeating Democrat Beto O’Rourke by simply over 2 factors.
Paxton can be as a lot of a legal responsibility for Republicans as loathsome Cruz—or extra.
Texas Sens. John Cornyn, left, and Ted Cruz pose for photos in 2019 close to Sarita, Texas.
Paxton was indicted on felony securities fraud fees, although they have been later dropped in 2024, in alternate for agreeing to carry out group service.
Paxton was additionally impeached by the state Home in 2023 for alleged bribery and allegedly having an affair, however he was acquitted of the costs by the state Senate, which Republicans management.
And in July, Paxton’s spouse—state Sen. Angela Paxton—filed for divorce from Paxton, accusing him of adultery.
Nevertheless, whereas these abhorrent actions can be a legal responsibility in a basic election, Republican major voters—who love Trump, a infamous adulterer and corrupt chief—are usually not as repelled by Paxton’s conduct.
Certainly, SLF stated of their slide presentation that Cornyn is shedding as a result of GOP major voters view Paxton as extra conservative.
Cornyn additionally pandered to Trump by making an attempt to sic the FBI on the Texas Democratic lawmakers who fled the state to stop Republicans from corruptly redrawing the state’s congressional maps to rig the 2026 midterm elections. Trump ordered Texas to redraw the state’s congressional map, hoping it could make it more durable for Democrats to win the U.S. Home subsequent November and save him from dealing with investigations and a test on his energy.
Paxton can also be hoping for Trump’s endorsement, going so far as reportedly stalking Trump on a latest journey to Scotland to win Trump’s blessing.
Texas’ Senate contest is at present rated a “Likely Republican” contest by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political handicapping outlet.
