Republicans need to keep away from a catastrophe within the Nebraska Senate race amid indicators that an unbiased candidate may very well be giving Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) a run for her cash.
Impartial Senate candidate and political newcomer Dan Osborn is difficult Fischer for her seat, betting that Nebraskans are hungry for a nonpartisan senator in a state former President Trump gained by shut to twenty factors in 2020.
Regardless of Nebraska’s reliably purple political leanings, the dynamics of the race have shifted in current weeks: Republican teams have began spending within the race, and the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook dinner Political Report final week shifted the race away from Fischer.
“As a pragmatist and a realist, generally in politics, you don’t spend money if you’re not worried or at least interested in making sure that you protect your seat,” stated Brent Comstock, a marketing consultant within the Cornhusker State who primarily works with Democrats.
“He’s appealing to the average moderate Nebraskan who realizes that one, the political parties are challenging, and two, that people want to elect someone who stands up for their rights and not for a party boss,” he added, whereas noting the clear Republican registration edge within the state.
Osborn, who has leaned into his bio as a steamfitter who led a serious strike towards Kellogg’s in 2021 in Omaha, has began to select up traction within the Nebraska Senate race.
Outdoors teams Retire Profession Politicians PAC and Nebraska Railroaders for Public Security have poured cash into the race in help of Osborn, together with not less than $3.2 million from the Retire Profession Politicians PAC alone, in line with AdImpact. Each teams have acquired sizable contributions from the liberal-leaning darkish cash group Sixteen Thirty Fund.
Osborn himself has been on the air, too. One among his marketing campaign advertisements exhibits him subsequent to an actor who’s portraying Fischer, who’s sporting a NASCAR-like jacket with patches that search to point out company pursuits who’ve given cash to her.
“The U.S. Senate is a country club full of millionaires controlled by billionaires,” Osborn advised The Hill in an announcement. “Nebraskans know we need change. That’s why I’m not a member of either party and it’s why I’m not taking a dime of corporate PAC money — because I refuse to be controlled by any party boss or special interest.”
“Instead, we’re uniting Democrats, Republicans and Independents to send a working person to Washington who will finally stand up for regular people.”
Even if unbiased polling has largely been scarce within the Senate race, Cook dinner Political Report’s Jessica Taylor famous final week that inner polling launched by Osborn’s marketing campaign confirmed the unbiased forward of Fischer by 1 level.
Nonetheless, she famous that “we remain very skeptical about Osborn’s path to 50%.”
The Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) — the Senate GOP’s marketing campaign arm — and the conservative tremendous PAC Heartland Resurgence have additionally began to pour in cash of their very own, portray Osborn “as a Democrat in disguise” and tying him to progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
“The NRSC’s number one priority is making sure we reelect all of our incumbent senators. Dan Osborn has no chance of winning this race because he is embroiled in scandal after scandal,” Philip Letsou, a spokesperson for the NRSC, advised The Hill in an announcement. He additionally identified that Osborn lauded Sanders, and he alluded to a New York Submit article by which Osborn reportedly referred to as Fischer’s workers and marketing campaign workers “a bunch of Hitler Youth frat boys,” amongst different particulars.
Osborn acknowledged the remarks about Fischer’s group have been “harsh” in an announcement to the Submit, saying he wished he might retract the statements. “I served in the Navy and sometimes I still talk like [a] sailor,” he advised the paper. “I’m not a career politician, I talk like a regular guy because I am a regular guy.”
“I have been clear that I won’t bend the knee to the party bosses or special interests, so Deb Fischer and her donors are coming after me with ridiculous lies,” the Osborn marketing campaign stated in an announcement to The Hill. “Nebraskans see right through this, and that’s why polling shows we’re ahead in this race and we’re going to win in November.”
The Osborn marketing campaign additionally stated the candidate “built a huge outpouring of support from across the political spectrum” amid the Kellogg’s strike in 2021, noting for instance a letter issued by then-Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) encouraging Kellogg’s to return to the negotiating desk.
GOP media strategist Ryan Horn stated whereas he discovered Osborn’s promoting more practical than Fischer’s, the unbiased faces stiff odds in a statewide Senate race.
“I look at these two ad campaigns, and I would say, if they were running for Nebraska 2 or for mayor of Omaha, I’d say she’s going to have a tough fight, but she’s not,” Horn stated, referring to the state’s 2nd Congressional District, the place each events are aggressive.
“They’re running statewide, right?” Horn stated. “And the rest of her ad campaign is, ‘I was endorsed by Donald Trump, and I’m a Republican.’”
Osborn will surely have to defy political gravity in GOP-friendly terrain. Independents as of late have additionally traditionally struggled to realize traction in Senate bids, the most recent instance of which got here from Utah in 2022, when unbiased Evan Mullin misplaced to Sen. Mike Lee (R).
“Senator Fischer has campaigned hard for two years, earning the endorsement of 93 bipartisan committee chairs, dozens of unions and trade groups, and over 1000 community leaders across the state,” the Fischer marketing campaign advised The Hill in an announcement. “She’s grateful for the support of Nebraskans, as well as her friends and colleagues in the Senate — they all know well what’s at stake. Another Kamala Harris supporter in the Senate puts the filibuster at even greater risk and places American prosperity and security in jeopardy.”
Different Republicans, too, doubt that Fischer is any hazard politically and counsel the spending pouring into the state is forcing the GOP to respect in return.
“I think it reflects the fact that there is so much more to be known about Dan Osborn than what’s in the record,” stated J.L. Spray, a former Republican Nationwide Committee committeeman from Nebraska and Fischer marketing campaign alum who’s not concerned in her reelection bid.
“Osborn didn’t go through any traditional nominating process. He isn’t known to the voters at all, and his introductory pieces started with attack pieces that require not only a response, but an introduction to him.”
But Democrats consider there’s cause for optimism. Nebraska state Sen. Carol Blood (D), who represents a Republican-leaning district and is working for Home towards Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), acknowledges that whereas she is likely to be a “unicorn,” politics can generally transcend get together traces.
“The point is that there are people who are willing to accept others from no party, another party, who they’ll agree with most of the time and maybe not all the time, but there’s a lot more common ground than there isn’t,” Blood stated.
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