Democrats are refusing to surrender on Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) reelection bid whilst his probabilities seem bleak with simply greater than two weeks till Election Day.
To GOP senators and operatives, the writing has been on the wall for weeks about Tester — and the font has been getting bigger by the day. They see little method again for the three-term Democrat in his struggle with Republican Tim Sheehy, who leads by 7 share factors, in line with Resolution Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling common.
However that has not dissuaded Democrats and outdoors teams, who’re intent on maintaining tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in advert buys by way of Nov. 5 in Montana and preserve the race — on which management of the Senate hinges — is certainly not over.
“We remain confident of Senator Tester’s ability to win the race in part because he’s so rooted in the state,” mentioned JB Poersch, president of the Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the biggest Democratic exterior group backing Senate Democratic candidates.
The SMP is placing its cash the place its mouth is. In response to ad-tracking knowledge, the group spent $5.3 million final week to spice up Tester and is about to drop an identical quantity subsequent week. General, spending by Tester and outdoors teams is virtually evenly matched with the GOP’s spending stage.
“Yes, we do. We think it’s viable,” Poersch continued.
Tester additionally gave himself a monetary shot within the arm final week by posting a $30 million fundraising haul over the previous three months. That may depart him with greater than he can spend on the airwaves within the ultimate weeks in one of many least costly states on the Senate map.
Nonetheless, the mathematics is straightforward for the GOP: defeat Tester, and the Senate majority is sort of assuredly theirs.
Republicans produce other pickup alternatives, together with in an more and more purple Ohio and a handful of battleground states. However none are as prime for the choosing as Montana, which former President Trump carried by greater than 16 share factors 4 years in the past.
That has made defeating the incumbent Democrat their high precedence, particularly after Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) retirement put them on the doorstep of retaking the chamber.
Resolution Desk HQ places Sheehy’s probabilities of victory at 81 %. However a lot of Democrats, together with these within the state, nonetheless see an in depth contest.
“I’m still not betting against Tester. That’s the bottom line,” one Montana-based Democratic strategist informed The Hill. “He knows how to win close races and he knows how to turn out a vote. … That muscle memory is something I’m not going to bet against.”
“It’s definitely an uphill climb,” the strategist conceded.
Democrats preserve the GOP has turn into too assured in a state that’s recognized to be robust to ballot and the place Tester has beforehand prevailed regardless of being down within the polls. That was very true in 2012, the final time he ran in a presidential yr.
“They’re clearly, in my view, making a mistake,” mentioned Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who ran the Senate Democratic marketing campaign’s efforts throughout Tester’s final reelection win. “Never count out Jon Tester.”
However there are nonetheless main questions for Tester to reply.
He hasn’t needed to overcome fairly such a giant polling deficit earlier than. And the Trump issue looms giant.
In response to the current New York Occasions/Siena School survey, Trump leads Vice President Harris by 17 factors in Montana — a tick increased than his 2020 margin, which means Tester would wish practically 1 in 5 supporters of the previous president to separate their tickets and likewise pull the lever for him.
That additionally means he and Harris have to stroll a positive line. Tester notably has not endorsed her and has tried to maintain his consideration on the state.
“The problem they have there is that Harris can be of no help to Tester. Republicans would probably love to see Harris go to Montana,” one Senate GOP member mentioned.
It additionally stays to be seen whether or not Tester is ready to prove the reservations and the Native American inhabitants within the state, which he has been capable of do in his previous victories. Native Individuals make up practically 7 % of the state’s inhabitants and represented 5 % of the 2018 voter voters when Tester was final on the poll. He received a 3rd time period by 3.5 share factors over Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.).
Democratic operatives imagine turnout from reservations, Native Individuals and tribes will likely be make or break for the Montana Democrat.
“Native American and reservation turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of this race. Sheehy certainly put his foot in his mouth with his comments about drunk Indians at 8 a.m.,” mentioned the Montana-based Democratic strategist. “That’s really been a galvanizing thing across all tribal and native demographics.”
Sheehy has since mentioned his remarks had been “insensitive.”
The strategist additionally famous that Native American turnout dropped precipitously between Tester’s 2018 contest and the race 4 years later, which they chalk as much as the dearth of a top-of-the-ticket draw and a foul winter storm. However that has prompted native teams to redouble their efforts this cycle. Van Hollen recalled that turning them out “requires real effort.”
Regardless of the polls, Democrats say they’ve a lot to assault Sheehy on. Along with his feedback about Native Individuals, Democrats are going after his out-of-state ties and questions surrounding a gunshot wound. Sheehy says he sustained it in Afghanistan as a Navy SEAL, however different accounts say he by chance shot himself in Glacier Nationwide Park.
Two extra tales questioning his account emerged Friday.
Van Hollen likened the race to Sen. Susan Collins’s (R-Maine) win in a blue state 4 years in the past after one survey after one other predicted she would lose to Democrat Sara Gideon.
“It’s just an example of when things get very tight, it all comes down to the ground game,” Van Hollen mentioned, lauding Tester’s efforts on that entrance.
Nonetheless, the race is a catch-22 of kinds for high Democratic teams. They face the query of whether or not to maintain cash within the race, even because the polling drifts away from them, that might be spent to spice up battleground-state incumbents or to fund long-shot bids in Texas and Florida, or to tug cash and redistribute it in different states, primarily conceding the bulk.
“We’re pleased that Schumer is still spending in Montana. It’s looking like a lost cause for them,” mentioned one GOP operative concerned in Senate races. “But obviously we’d love for them to accept defeat and completely pull out.”
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