Coco Gauff vs. Naomi Osaka on the US Open: Who will win?

Aug 30, 2025, 05:26 PM ET

NEW YORK — Former champions Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka will go head-to-head in a blockbuster fourth-round matchup on the US Open on Monday night time, after reserving their locations within the final 16 in contrasting types.

Gauff cruised previous Magdalena Frech of Poland 6-3, 6-1, whereas Osaka battled previous Australia’s Daria Kasatkina 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 to make the fourth spherical of a serious for the primary time since she gained the Australian Open in 2021.

This will probably be their sixth match in all, and first on the US Open since 2019 — their first assembly — when Osaka beat the then-15-year-old Gauff 6-3, 6-0. Gauff bought her revenge on the Australian Open in 2020 of their subsequent match, then they traded off the subsequent two. Most just lately, Gauff superior in Beijing in 2024, when Osaka retired via damage at one set all, making the general report 3-2.

It’s a pivotal match for each gamers. For Gauff, it’s the prospect to succeed in the quarters for the third time in 4 years. For Osaka, it’s a possibility to reestablish herself on the enterprise finish of a serious for the primary time since she turned a mom.

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1:29

Coco Gauff cruises in straight-sets win at US Open

Magdalena Frech vs. Coco Gauff: Match Highlights

What Gauff has to do to win

One half is easy: If she serves properly, she could have an incredible probability to win.

Nobody has served extra double faults than her prior to now three years — she is closing in on 1,000 for the reason that begin of 2023. And her serve stays a piece in progress beneath the steerage of Gavin MacMillan, the person who cured Aryna Sabalenka‘s serving woes a number of years in the past.

Gauff has been reducing down on her tempo in an effort to get extra first serves in and take the stress off her second serve, which remains to be shaky at instances. Osaka is an aggressive returner, so something brief will probably be punished, which in itself will probably be a stress. However nobody battles more durable than Gauff, and she’s going to combat like her life will depend on it.

However even when she doesn’t serve properly, Gauff has proven outstanding resilience, and as she proved on the French Open, she will even win slams when not at her finest.

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1:35

Naomi Osaka prevails in 3 units at US Open

Daria Kasatkina vs. Naomi Osaka: Match Highlights

What Osaka has to do to win

Osaka has been returning even higher than Gauff to this point on this match, making 83% of balls again, on common, and successful a median of 38% when returning first serve and an enormous 73% when returning the second serve.

That spells bother for Gauff if she misses first serves too usually, as a result of Osaka will pounce on something brief. Her motion is vastly improved over current months and her confidence is up. When she is in place to crack a forehand or backhand, she’s mighty harmful, dominating the 0-4 photographs class.

When Osaka is at her finest, she excels in first-strike tennis, and if she continues to hit the ball the way in which she has been, she ought to get loads of alternatives to dominate rallies towards Gauff, whose counterpunching abilities will probably be examined.

Gauff misplaced to Osaka the one different time they’ve performed one another on the US Open, again in 2019. Justin Lane/EPA

What they’re saying about one another

Gauff on their 2019 US Open match: “I remember it was a tough moment for me because it was a hyped-up match. I guess I put way too much pressure on myself thinking I maybe had a chance in that moment to actually do something, which I definitely did, but I think it was just I felt more expectation that I should than maybe belief. Then when I played her in Australia, that was more belief than expectation. It would be a cool kind of déjà vu type of situation, but hopefully it will be a different result.”

Osaka on Gauff: “Can somebody come to the match and cheer for me because it’s kind of tough playing an American here? I kind of see her as a little sister so it’s kind of cool to be playing her here again. To be playing her again after six years, I don’t know if that makes me old, but just to be at this point of my life and to be playing her again is honestly, for me, feels kind of special. I’m honestly excited to play her now, because I feel healthy, and I just want to see what happens.”

Might two-time US Open champion Osaka pull off the win over Gauff? Susan Mullane/ISI Photographs/ISI Photographs by way of Getty Photos

Who will win?

Contemplating that Osaka has not reached the quarters of a Slam since 2021, it’s unusual that this match appears like a little bit of a toss-up. However she has confidence from reaching the ultimate in Canada and is starting to seem like the girl who has 4 Grand Slams to her title, whereas Gauff remains to be combating herself as she tries to repair her service motion.

Except their final assembly, when Osaka retired injured after the second set, the participant who wins the primary set has gained in all the opposite 4 clashes, so a quick begin is crucial. Gauff could have the group on her aspect however that brings its personal stress, whereas Osaka is enjoying nice tennis once more, so this threatens to be the sort of match that would spark an actual rivalry for the subsequent few years.

Prediction: Three units, to Osaka.