At the least Arizona didn’t lose to a decrease seed.
Or get run off the courtroom.
Or implode within the remaining minutes.
This time, the Wildcats departed the NCAA Match with heads held excessive, fan angst low and the purpose unfold coated.
Duke is the match favourite for a purpose, with the presumptive No. 1 choose within the NBA Draft (Cooper Flagg), two projected lottery alternatives (Kon Knueppel and Khaman Malauch) and off-the-charts effectivity honed over a season of dominance.
If something, the Wildcats carried out higher within the 100-93 loss Thursday evening than many anticipated, rallying from 19 down halfway via the second half to inside 5 factors within the remaining minutes. They pushed Duke longer and more durable within the Candy 16 than Alabama did two days and one spherical later.
All of the grit lacking in prior years in opposition to lesser opponents — Arizona’s six earlier match losses got here courtesy of groups seeded at the least 4 strains decrease — was on show in Newark in opposition to probably the most proficient group within the land.
That doesn’t change the fact of this system’s 24-year Closing 4 drought or an unfathomable 14-year stretch of not beating the next seed. However it leaves behind a special vibe because the offseason begins and, coincidentally, offers a launch level for the crux of our dialogue.
What classes ought to the Wildcats take from their first yr within the Large 12? Are modifications wanted to the journey logistics or the best way they put together for opponents? Ought to coach Tommy Lloyd tweak his philosophy of roster building? What concerning the allocation of taking part in time throughout a extra arduous season?
Additionally, ought to the Wildcats alter their strategy to the non-conference schedule?
That subject may appear separate and distinct from modifications associated to life within the Large 12, however the two points are deeply linked.
The frequency of high-level video games within the Large 12 far exceeds what the Wildcats confronted beforehand within the Pac-12 and impacts their NCAA Match profile. That profile impacts their seed. And their seed, in flip, helps body the highway to the Closing 4.
For instance, Arizona beat Texas Tech on a impartial courtroom within the Large 12 match, and Texas Tech pushed Florida to the brink two weeks later within the Elite Eight. It’s not unreasonable to assume the Wildcats might have crushed the Gators had they been positioned within the West. And regional placement is dependent upon seed, which is dependent upon profile, which is dependent upon … non-conference schedule and efficiency.
Admittedly, we’ve got plunged deep into the realm of hypotheticals. Additionally, our pattern dimension isn’t small; it’s tiny. And the marquee non-conference video games Arizona performs regularly provide a slew of advantages.
They’re a carrot when recruiting blue-chip prospects who wish to play in opposition to elite competitors, though that element appears much less vital within the age of NIL and income sharing.
They energize followers and generate ticket gross sales, though filling McKale Heart has not been an issue for 40-something years.
And sure, they bolster resumes for the NCAA choice course of by growing each the strength-of-schedule metric and the variety of Quadrant I opponents.
That was a problem for Arizona in its earlier existence, when the mediocre Pac-12 usually failed to offer an appropriate stage of high quality competitors.
However the calculus within the Large 12 is totally completely different with so many groups entrenched within the high 75 of the NET rating.
A number of knowledge factors illustrate the state of affairs:
— Of their remaining three seasons within the Pac-12, the Wildcats performed a mean of 10.3 Quadrant I video games previous to Choice Sunday.
— This season, with the Large 12 schedule because the bedrock, the Wildcats performed 21.
— No group within the high 20 of the ultimate NET rankings performed greater than the Wildcats and solely two, Auburn and Kentucky, matched Arizona’s complete.
— The common variety of Quad I video games performed by the No. 1 seeds within the NCAAs was 16.3.
— The common variety of Quad I video games performed by the No. 2 seeds was 16.3.
— The common variety of Quad I video games by the No. 3 seeds was 17.3.
And so we marvel: Might the Wildcats ratchet down the rigor of their non-conference schedule with few, if any, draw back dangers to their final seed? Would any upside advantages (e.g., fewer losses) enhance their probabilities of incomes the next seed?
To be clear, we’re not suggesting Arizona eradicate all Quadrant I-caliber video games in November and December. The UCLA collection, scheduled via 2027, is vital. So are the impartial website occasions in Las Vegas, Hawaii, The Bahamas and elsewhere.
However might tweaks be made on the margins? With the switch portal and NIL remodeling rosters yearly, early-season chemistry may be tougher to achieve.
Arizona stumbled repeatedly within the opening weeks and was 6-5 when convention play started, partially as a result of Lloyd wanted time to assimilate new gamers.
These losses influence the seeding course of, and each seed line issues.
It’s tough to understand how the state of affairs would have performed out had the Wildcats not scheduled, and misplaced to, Duke and Wisconsin.
However Texas Tech, Brigham Younger and Iowa State performed considerably weaker non-conference schedules than Arizona and appeared no worse for the technique when March arrived.
The solutions are unknowable at this level. It is a multi-year challenge for Lloyd to evaluate, maybe in session with Large 12 officers who’ve entry to reams of information that would show insightful.
However when two-thirds of your schedule is considerably tougher than it was once, it solely is smart to reassess the remaining one-third.
