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The Wall Street Publication > Blog > Markets > Apple projected to beat Samsung in smartphone shipments for first time since 2011
Markets

Apple projected to beat Samsung in smartphone shipments for first time since 2011

Editorial Board Published November 26, 2025
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Apple projected to beat Samsung in smartphone shipments for first time since 2011
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‘The Big Money Show’ panel discusses Counterpoint Analysis’s prediction that Apple will reclaim its crown because the world’s largest smartphone maker.

Apple’s smartphone shipments in 2025 are anticipated to high Samsung’s for the primary time in over a decade and grow to be the world’s main vendor of smartphones, in line with a brand new report.

An evaluation by Counterpoint Analysis discovered that international smartphone shipments are set to rise by 3.3% 12 months over 12 months in 2025, with a lot of the acquire pushed by Apple.

Shipments of iPhones are anticipated to develop 10% 12 months over 12 months in 2025, partly due to rising demand for the iPhone 17 collection in key areas.

Counterpoint projected that Apple’s shipments will attain 19.4% in 2025, which might make Apple the world’s main smartphone producer for the primary time since 2011.

NEW APPLE IPHONE 17 GOES ON SALE WORLDWIDE

Robust demand for the iPhone 17 is anticipated to propel Apple previous Samsung for the primary time since 2011, in line with Counterpoint Analysis. (Reuters/Shannon Stapleton)

Samsung’s shipments are anticipated to extend 4.6% 12 months over 12 months and attain a world share of 18.7%, slipping out of first place for the primary time in over a decade.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” mentioned senior analyst Yang Wang.

“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years,” Wang added. 

APPLE, MICROSOFT HIT $4T MILESTONE

Ticker Safety Final Change Change % AAPL APPLE INC. 277.71 +0.74
+0.27%
SSNLF SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. 65.21 +24.61
+60.62%

That base of client demand is anticipated to assist Apple retain its newly regained lead amongst smartphone producers by way of 2029, in line with the evaluation.

Samsung’s strategic transfer to the A collection is anticipated to bolster momentum in rising markets by way of its stronger specs and aggressive pricing, whereas in mature markets Samsung’s transfer to premium choices is anticipated to assist it defend market share, Counterpoint projected.

APPLE DIGITAL FEATURE TO MAKE TRAVEL EASIER FOR DOMESTIC FLIERS

Smartphones at a store

Samsung is anticipated to see sturdy cargo development regardless of being surpassed by Apple, Counterpoint mentioned. (SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg through Getty Pictures)

Chinese language smartphone producers are anticipated to rely additional on abroad markets to gasoline development, whereas additionally shifting into higher-priced segments with premium options to spice up profitability. 

Counterpoint mentioned that diversification ought to enable the Chinese language producers to strengthen their income, whereas their rankings when it comes to shipments are anticipated to carry regular by way of 2029.

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