Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of a very powerful polling developments or information factors it’s essential learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Day by day Kos reporting, plus a vibe examine on a pattern that’s driving politics.
Trump flails on main points
President Donald Trump’s job-approval numbers are sliding—and new information exhibits it could possibly be as a result of People aren’t massive followers of his agenda.
A brand new ballot from Related Press-NORC Heart for Public Affairs Analysis discovered that Trump doesn’t have a internet approval score in any of the eight coverage areas surveyed. No, not even immigration.
He might have earned the very best marks on immigration, however solely 49% of People approve of how he is dealing with it, in contrast with 50% who disapprove. On different points, nevertheless, Trump fared a lot worse, together with his dealing with of the economic system. Solely 40% approve of how he’s dealing with it, whereas 58% disapprove.
His worst marks got here on his dealing with of commerce negotiations with different nations: 38% approve, 60% disapprove. And this survey was performed earlier than he tanked the worldwide inventory markets together with his idiotic tariffs.
These numbers are a part of a broader pattern. Different new polls present People aren’t proud of Trump, significantly on the economic system.
A Gallup ballot launched Thursday discovered that the economic system topped People’ listing of considerations, with 87% worrying about it at the very least a good quantity. Proper behind it are inflation (85%) and the provision and affordability of well being care (82%). Worse for Trump, the share of People who fear “a great deal” about all three have jumped since final yr.
Trump’s chaotic tariffs look like driving worries in regards to the economic system, doubtless as a result of the tariffs are anticipated to lift client costs.
Nonetheless, 67% of Republicans approve of Trump’s tariffs. And Gallup’s information finds that GOP voters specific much less fear than Democrats in regards to the economic system. It’s a stark reminder that even because the tariffs threaten to kick the nation right into a recession, Republicans are sticking by their man. It’s a loyalty that’s much less about sound coverage and extra about tribalism, irrespective of the fee.
Numbers on the CEO homicide
Lawyer Common Pam Bondi introduced Tuesday that the Justice Division will search the dying penalty for Luigi Mangione, the person accused of murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in December. Whereas the general public extensively condemned the killing, Mangione has garnered a cult following since his arrest, pushed by contempt for the U.S. well being care trade.
Nonetheless, public sentiment round Thompson’s homicide is extra advanced than easy outrage. Recent YouGov information finds that solely 56% of People disapprove of the killing, which is barely decrease than the 60% who disapproved in December, shortly after the crime.
YouGov, recognized for its rigorous polling, framed the query rigorously, permitting respondents to specific ambivalence or refined approval with out outright endorsing the homicide. When requested whether or not they “approve or disapprove” of Thompson’s killing, respondents might select from the next choices: approve (8%), neither approve nor disapprove (12%), disapprove (56%), undecided (18%), or desire to not say (7%).
Luigi Mangione, accused of fatally taking pictures the UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, seems in courtroom for a listening to on Feb. 21, in New York Metropolis.
Decoding these numbers is difficult. Respondents who chosen “prefer not to say” or “not sure” might, the truth is, sympathize with Mangione however are unwilling to confess it to a pollster—maybe out of discomfort with overtly approving of a violent crime. (In survey analysis, that is recognized “social-desirability bias.”)
However there’s additionally a deeper anti-corporate sentiment at play. Mangione’s case is intertwined with broader frustrations over medical health insurance within the U.S. YouGov’s March ballot finds that solely 30% of People have a good view of the medical health insurance trade, whereas a staggering 62% maintain an unfavorable opinion. Majorities of Democrats (64%), independents (63%), and Republicans (57%) maintain an unfavorable view.
Mangione has additionally attracted a cult following, significantly amongst younger voters and girls—a phenomenon primarily arising from his anti-corporate trigger, younger age (26), and bodily look. Strikingly, in YouGov’s ballot, 18% of People view Mangione favorably—the identical share who views Thompson favorably. The important thing distinction lies of their unfavorability scores: 48% maintain an unfavorable opinion of Mangione, in contrast with simply 36% for Thompson.
Whether or not fueled by populist rage, private sympathies, or on-line fandom, public response to the case stays profoundly divided—and unlikely to cool down anytime quickly.
All of the information that’s match to be doom-scrolled
Only a few are following the information as a result of it’s “entertaining or interesting.” Simply 37% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats say that’s a serious cause why they’re tuned in.
The largest driver appears to be concern.
That 45% continues to be important, although. It means that even inside the GOP, Trump’s selections aren’t sitting nicely with almost half of his base. We’ve seen a few of that concern play out at Republican congressional city halls, the place indignant constituents are exhibiting as much as grill their representatives.
In different phrases, concern and uncertainty—not admiration—are driving America’s political consideration proper now.
Any updates?
Trump is “not joking” about presumably operating for an unconstitutional third time period, insisting that “a lot of people would like” for him to stay in energy—however polling suggests in any other case. A brand new YouGov ballot finds that 69% of People oppose permitting Trump to serve for a 3rd time period—a 6-point enhance since February. Even amongst Republicans, the keenness simply isn’t there. The most recent survey finds Republicans break up on the problem: 43% in favor of permitting it, 42% not in favor.
The notorious “Signalgate” scandal hasn’t impacted Trump’s help—at the very least not but. A brand new Morning Seek the advice of ballot exhibits that 52% of voters approve of his dealing with of nationwide safety, a 1-point enhance from earlier than The Atlantic’s bombshell report. That is regardless of Trump’s nationwide safety adviser utilizing an unsecured messaging app to debate every little thing from assault plans in Yemen to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Musk’s shady try to purchase a state Supreme Court docket election in Wisconsin backfired spectacularly. A part of his scheme concerned paying folks $100 to signal a petition in opposition to “activist judges.” And because it seems, 65% of People consider paying folks to signal a political petition needs to be unlawful, in line with YouGov.
Vibe examine
Regardless of some wins this week—most notably, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker’s marathon flooring speech—the Democratic Celebration continues to be paying the worth for yielding to Trump. In keeping with information from Civiqs on Friday, 60% of registered voters have an unfavorable view of the occasion, whereas simply 32% view it favorably—a drop of two factors on internet since early March.
Amongst Democratic voters, help is slipping too: 70% have a good view of their occasion, however that’s a steep 12-point decline from Election Day 2024. In the meantime, 15% of Democrats now say they view their very own occasion unfavorably, and one other 15% aren’t positive how they view it.
The precise root of this elevated negativity isn’t clear from Civiqs’ information, however Democrats now have an opportunity to doubtlessly flip issues round—particularly with the GOP in complete disarray. Let’s hope they seize it.
Marketing campaign Motion
