The Texas Democrats who left the state to dam an aggressive GOP redistricting effort ended their two-week walkout Monday, clearing the best way for Republicans to move a congressional map ordered by President Donald Trump.
The return means the Texas Home will lastly have a quorum when it gavels in at 1 PM ET, one thing it hasn’t achieved for weeks.
State Home Minority Chief Gene Wu, who chairs the Texas Home Democratic Caucus, described the walkout as symbolic.
“We killed the corrupt special session, withstood unprecedented surveillance and intimidation, and rallied Democrats nationwide to join this existential fight for fair representation—reshaping the entire 2026 landscape,” Wu stated in a press release. “We’re returning to Texas more dangerous to Republicans’ plans than when we left. Our return allows us to build the legal record necessary to defeat this racist map in court, take our message to communities across the state and country, and inspire legislators across the country how to fight these undemocratic redistricting schemes in their own statehouses.”
Empty chairs belonging to Home Democrats stay empty throughout a session convocation within the Texas Capitol on Aug. 5.
Nonetheless, not all Democrats got here again. Simply as in 2021, when lawmakers walked out to dam a voter-suppression invoice, just a few are refusing to return again on precept. One state Home member instructed The New York Occasions that the celebration’s energy lies in resistance, not serving to Republicans safe a quorum for a gerrymandered map.
With most Democrats again in Austin, Republicans are able to push their plan via the Home this week. Senate Republicans accredited their model final Tuesday, with 9 Democrats staging a walkout earlier than the vote.
The reality is, the walkout would by no means alter the elemental political dynamics. Texas Republicans maintain the facility, and Democrats lack the numbers to cease them.
As soon as the brand new map is enacted into regulation, as anticipated, Democrats plan to problem it within the courts. The stakes are excessive: The GOP’s proposed map redraws 5 Democratic-held districts to be extra Republican-leaning forward of the 2026 midterms, giving Trump’s celebration an opportunity to shore up its Home majority in what is predicted to be a harsh election 12 months for them. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has even threatened to redraw extra districts as retaliation for Democrats, although it’s unsure if he’ll comply with via.
However whether or not Republicans can truly web 5 new seats stays unsure.
The brand new strains goal 5 Democratic-leaning districts—the ninth, twenty eighth, thirty second, thirty fourth, and thirty fifth—and redraw them into extra Republican-friendly territory. On paper, Trump would have carried all 5 in 2024 by 10 share factors or extra, which ought to make them straightforward wins for Republicans in 2026.
In observe, it’s extra difficult.
Election analysts on the Silver Bulletin word that three of those districts—the ninth, thirty second, and thirty fifth—had been reshaped to incorporate suburban areas that strongly supported Trump in 2024. Underneath these new boundaries, Trump would have received by a median of 14 factors, and he additionally carried all three in 2020. These are robust odds for Democrats, they usually’re the most definitely to flip subsequent cycle.
The opposite two, the twenty eighth and thirty fourth, are nearer instances. Each are in South Texas, the place Trump outperformed in 2024 even with the previous strains. Republicans redrew them to be extra favorable, however former President Joe Biden carried each within the 2020 election.
A lady holds an indication throughout a rally to protest in opposition to redistricting hearings on the Texas Capitol on July 24.
This makes them much less safe for a fast flip, particularly in a probably difficult nationwide surroundings for the GOP.
In different phrases, Republicans could not sweep as simply as they hope.
The twenty eighth and thirty fourth districts may flip crimson on their very own in 2028 if Hispanic voters proceed to shift proper, however flipping them in 2026 will probably be tougher. In spite of everything, gerrymandering can do solely a lot.
To do that, Democrats purpose to quickly droop California’s unbiased redistricting fee through a poll measure and hand management again to the legislature.
What started as a Texas standstill has now develop into a nationwide contest over redistricting. California is planning a Democratic counter-map. Republican-led states, similar to Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio, are contemplating their very own plans.
Either side are brazenly strategizing to lock in energy earlier than 2026, organising a fierce tit-for-tat for management of the Home. Possibly Republicans will prevail. However Democrats aren’t giving up.
