Welcome to NFL Ideas, a wide-ranging, in-depth take a look at a few of the high storylines of the 2025 season. Final week, we examined the 49ers‘ difficult 2024 and ensuing busy offseason and evaluated how much optimism there should be entering 2025. Today, we’re taking a look at one other NFC workforce that we questioned forward of final season after which endured a disappointing, injury-filled marketing campaign after years of success: the Cowboys.
Jerry Jones has spent the final a number of years backing — and speaking — himself right into a nook concerning the contracts of his largest stars. This yr, he’s doing the identical with Micah Parsons, however there isn’t the identical stage of consternation there had been concerning Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Parsons confirmed as much as necessary minicamp, even with a deal nowhere to be discovered, and the celebrity move rusher’s willingness to do this robotically paints Dallas’ annual high offseason storyline in a extra constructive gentle. One would think about — despite the fact that it has already taken far more time than mandatory — {that a} deal will get finished.
The second-biggest storyline is new head coach Brian Schottenheimer. After flirting with a number of large names, the Cowboys opted to remain in-house, elevating their offensive coordinator of the previous two seasons to his first head-coaching gig within the wake of Mike McCarthy’s departure. Schottenheimer won’t solely tackle head teaching duties for the primary time ever but in addition play-calling duties for the primary time since 2020. It’s a giant leapfrog for him after Jones was unwilling/unable to make a giant leap within the hiring course of. To put in writing Schottenheimer off already wouldn’t be affordable or truthful, however there are vital doubts.
In spite of everything of that — plus a commerce for the mercurial George Pickens — we will lastly get to an important storyline: Can the Cowboys really compete once more? From 2021-23, with Prescott wholesome, solely the Chiefs gained extra video games than the Cowboys. One might level to Prescott’s well being as the first cause behind a 7-10 report in 2024, however Dallas went solely 3-5 in his eight begins earlier than his harm, pointing to greater points than quarterback well being. Whether or not they’ve been rectified or not stays TBD.
Cowboys offense: Can Prescott bounce again, and what does it appear like underneath Schottenheimer?
Prescott was a bonafide star in 2023. He completed second to Lamar Jackson in MVP voting and led the NFL with 36 landing passes. He posted his lowest interception charge since he was a rookie, one yr after main the NFL with 15 interceptions.
In 2024, although, Prescott missed throws, stared down receivers, obtained fooled by defenses and compelled balls into tight home windows. It was a surprising regression: eight interceptions in eight video games after 9 in 17 video games in 2023. Seven of the eight picks got here on throws no less than 10 yards downfield.
TD-Int
7-7
17-4
Off-target charge
17.2%
16.6%
Completion share
46%
55.2%
Prescott’s turnover-worthy throw charge of 9.2% on these throws was a profession excessive and the fourth-worst within the NFL, forward of solely Jameis Winston, Will Levis and Drake Maye. That’s two of essentially the most mistake-prone quarterbacks of the fashionable NFL and a rookie taking part in in terrible environment. Prescott posted a 3.3% charge in 2023 and had solely been above 7% twice in eight seasons earlier than final yr. Final yr didn’t make sense. He merely put the ball in hurt’s approach far, far too usually downfield.
Working via the ugly movie of Prscott’s picks, I seen all eight got here on straight dropbacks, fairly than play motion. Final yr, Prescott had a 16.9% play motion charge, not solely a profession low however the fourth-lowest mark within the league behind Caleb Williams (who was poorly coached), Cooper Rush (Prescott’s backup) and Kirk Cousins (who might hardly transfer months faraway from a ruptured Achilles).
Prescott was additionally in shotgun a career-high 74% of the time, and when he was in shotgun, the Cowboys threw the ball 76% of the time, which might have been the fourth-highest charge within the NFL. Total, Dallas had the second-highest passing charge within the first half of 2024. It was twenty first from 2021-23.
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If the previous is any indication, Schottenheimer needs to deliver that 2024 quantity approach down. In his three-year stint as Seahawks offensive coordinator, solely the Titans and Ravens had a decrease passing frequency. A few of that was Russell Wilson scrambling, in fact, however Chris Carson emerged from seventh-round choose to standout underneath Schottenheimer, averaging practically 1,200 dashing yards throughout 2018 and 2019.
Schottenheimer inherits, on paper, a equally underwhelming backfield this season in Dallas. Offseason additions Javonte Williams (3.6) and Miles Sanders (3.5) have been two of the worst working backs within the NFL over the previous two seasons, rating forty sixth and forty eighth, respectively in yards per carry amongst 50 qualifying rushers. The workforce drafted Jaydon Blue within the fifth spherical, and he’s a significant expertise, however he had 4 fumbles final yr and is a bit undersized. We’ll see how a lot work he will get. Dallas wants his explosiveness desperately after rating twenty ninth in explosive rush charge final yr.
The Cowboys didn’t purchase Pickens to lean right into a working recreation headed by an unsure trio, although. A part of Prescott’s turnover points had been his receivers’ incapability to get open. ESPN’s receiver scores graded 116 broad receivers. One Cowboy — Lamb at thirteenth — was the one one within the high half in “open” rating. KaVontae Turpin was seventy fifth, Brandin Cooks eightieth, Jalen Brooks 89th, Jalen Tolbert 93rd and Jonathan Mingo (whom the Cowboys traded a fourth-round choose for!) one hundred and fifteenth.
As such, the Pickens addition was much-needed, and Prescott is already singing his praises.
“You turn on that guy’s tape, he’s getting separation,” Prescott instructed reporters final week. “He’s got separation even when he’s not getting the ball at times. And when he doesn’t have separation, he’s still making the catches.”
The ability has by no means been a query. Pickens was twenty fourth in open rating final season. He can win 50-50 balls, blaze downfield and produce after the catch. Since Pickens entered the league in 2022, solely two gamers have extra catches on throws 20 yards or extra downfield. Conversely, just one has extra catches than Lamb on throws 20 yards or fewer downfield.
That is the very best broad receiver duo Prescott has had, they usually complement each other. Preserving the mercurial Pickens, who reportedly had unhealthy apply habits and obtained in sideline spats in Pittsburgh, targeted might be key.
Lastly, for Prescott to ship these deep balls to Pickens, he wants a line that may afford him time. Tyler Smith is an rising star, and Tyler Booker was a first-round draft choose. His underwhelming mix numbers are a priority, however he additionally delivered the very best quote of the mix.
“I just love the aggressiveness and the tenacity of the game of football. It’s legal assault out there,” he mentioned. “I love football. The brand of football I play, I make guys not love football anymore.”
Dallas definitely loves that, and if he can open up dashing lanes, it’ll be all the higher.
Issues might come right down to final yr’s first-round choose, left deal with Tyler Guyton. Guyton is the close to actual reverse of Booker: an amazing athlete however extraordinarily uncooked. Jared Dubin broke down Guyton’s rookie-year struggles, they usually had been those you’d count on from a uncooked prospect shifting to left deal with as an NFL rookie: penalties and down-to-down consistency.
Nonetheless, the Cowboys have a powerful observe report creating offensive linemen, the inside is a bodily bunch, and Terence Steele is no less than satisfactory at proper deal with. Defending Prescott’s blindside is a giant job, and Guyton have to be as much as it if the Cowboys are to get their offense buzzing once more.
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Cowboys protection: Can they get again to creating havoc?
In fashionable protection, there are two methods to succeed: dominating down-to-down (which is actually troublesome until you’ve gotten overwhelming expertise) and creating chaos within the type of turnovers and sacks (which is more easy if issues bounce your approach).
After excelling within the latter from 2021-23 underneath Dan Quinn — nobody compelled extra turnovers than the Cowboys’ 93 — Dallas did neither in 2024 underneath Mike Zimmer. To be truthful, a few of that ought to have been anticipated. Quinn used a bunch of smaller, sooner gamers to create chaos all around the area. In 2023, Dallas performed dime (six defensive backs) on 60.4% of its snaps, not solely the very best charge on report (since 2007) however a large, huge outlier in present-day soccer. The second-highest charge that yr belonged to the Steelers at … 23.2%.
Zimmer prefers a way more conventional, organized model. The Cowboys, regardless of having related personnel from the yr earlier than, performed dime on simply 2.5% of snaps. Zimmer tried to usher in some gamers to assist ease the transition, however it was nonetheless usually a matter of sticking a sq. peg right into a spherical gap. And that was earlier than the accidents. Parsons missed time. Professional Bowl ballhawking cornerbacks Daron Bland and Trevon Diggs missed a variety of time. DeMarvion Overshown, one of many vibrant spots from a misplaced season, suffered a brutal harm that can restrict his availability this yr. The Cowboys had been twenty fourth in defensive success charge and twenty ninth in run protection success charge.
They didn’t do a complete lot to deal with these points. Diggs continues to be recovering from yet one more knee surgical procedure. The largest additions had been Dante Fowler Jr., who had 10.5 sacks final yr for the Commanders however struggled in opposition to the run, and Kenneth Murray, who hasn’t lived as much as his first-round billing. Similar with cornerback Kaiir Elam, who might have a giant position relying on the well being of that place group. Second-round EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku and third-round cornerback Shavon Revel Jr., each considered robust abilities who slid within the draft, will even be counted on early.
The saving grace could be — and may need to be — Parsons. After coming back from harm in Week 10, Parsons had 11 sacks, 2.5 greater than anybody else and greater than the Giants had as a workforce. His 49 pressures over that span had been seven greater than some other participant. He’s a one-man wrecking crew.
One of the best-case for Dallas is Parsons performs at an all-world stage, and his presence provides a still-effective Fowler a variety of one-on-one alternatives. Former first-round choose Mazi Smith lastly begins to indicate enchancment in his third season alongside Osa Odighizuwa within the center, and the aggressive, athletic Marist Liufau can create havoc whereas additionally taking part in with extra self-discipline after an up-and-down rookie yr. Bland will get again to his playmaking methods, and Dallas, even when not dominant down-to-down, causes a variety of destructive performs. Total, the gamers adapt a lot better to Zimmer’s schemes in 12 months 2.
The worst case state of affairs is … properly, we noticed it play out final yr just about, and it wasn’t near adequate. The 468 factors allowed had been second-most in franchise historical past.
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Outlook: Is a wholesome Prescott and higher supporting solid sufficient?
There are questions on protection. There are questions at working again. There are extra questions than solutions. On one hand, we noticed Prescott single-handedly elevate an offense with very good play two years in the past. Then again, final yr was a battle throughout.
The opposite challenge right here is the NFC East. The Eagles are the defending Tremendous Bowl champions. The Commanders made the NFC Championship Recreation. Not solely that, however the NFC East has cross matchups with the loaded NFC North and AFC West this yr, divisions that produced three playoff groups every final yr.
The Cowboys are possible not the juggernaut that produced three straight 12-win seasons. However with inside defensive enhancements plus a targeted Pickens, they may definitely be a harmful workforce and a possible playoff one, too. If Prescott struggles once more, although, or Schottenheimer underwhelms, or if the protection can’t get it collectively, there may be the very actual chance of a second straight postseason-less yr. And that’s a variety of “if”s.
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