Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up a very powerful polling developments or knowledge factors you want to learn about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Every day Kos reporting, plus a vibe examine on a pattern that’s driving politics.
A bar graph can change minds
Individuals broadly again growing the cash spent on protection—except they’re advised how a lot cash already goes to it.
This discovering comes from YouGov, which performed a survey experiment on federal funding. Of the 1,149 Individuals it surveyed, half have been proven a breakdown of the 2025 federal price range, whereas the opposite half weren’t. Then YouGov requested whether or not numerous departments ought to obtain extra, much less, or the identical quantity of funding.
The funding distribution that YouGov confirmed to half of the survey’s respondents.
Amongst those that didn’t see the price range, 36% supported elevated spending on protection. Nonetheless, amongst those that did see the breakdown, solely 18% felt the identical method.
Clearly, seeing how a lot of the price range already goes to the Pentagon modified minds.
The second-largest distinction got here on schooling spending. Amongst those that noticed that division’s sliver of the price range, help for elevated spending was 57%, whereas amongst those that didn’t see the price range, it was simply 47%.
Nonetheless, Protection stood out—and it’s simple to see why.
Whereas most individuals desire a robust nationwide protection, many don’t understand it already dominates discretionary spending. The Pentagon’s annual price range exceeds $800 billion, whereas the Training Division’s price range is a couple of tenth of that. In the meantime, the White Home desires to slash nondefense spending by 23% going into the following fiscal yr.
A U.S. Navy oiler conducts a replenishment within the Atlantic Ocean in December 2024.
So when individuals say they need extra for protection, it’s actually because they don’t acknowledge how a lot we already allocate to it. However once they see the numbers, help is decrease.
You see an analogous sample with overseas help. Polls constantly present that Individuals imagine the U.S. spends roughly 30% of its price range on overseas help. In actuality, it’s about 1%. And polls present that seeing the true determine modifications minds. For instance, when KFF knowledgeable respondents of the actual quantity spent on overseas help, the share who mentioned the U.S. was spending “too much” on help dropped by over 20 proportion factors.
That is how public opinion will get formed: not simply by values, but in addition by assumptions. Most Individuals don’t despise overseas help or want limitless navy spending. As an alternative, they’re reacting to a price range they think about, not the one we now have.
Seems, seeing a bar graph could make a giant distinction.
Are Individuals turning on the GOP?
The tide could also be turning: Current polling suggests Individuals may now have a extra favorable view of congressional Democrats than Republicans.
From the start of December by way of the tip of March, the web favorability of every social gathering’s Congress members was by no means greater than 2 factors aside, in keeping with knowledge from Morning Seek the advice of. Basically, each social gathering’s lawmakers have been seen in a equally detrimental gentle.
Nonetheless, in early April, issues started to open up. Shortly after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs” took impact, Democrats ran up their widest net-favorability lead (7 factors) over Republicans since November and have been seen for the primary time since final yr’s election as web favorable, which means the next share of voters noticed them positively than did negatively.
Moreover, from April to now, Democrats’ web favorability has been over 3 factors larger on common, in contrast with it being lower than 1 level larger on common between December and the tip of March.
In different phrases, the impasse could—emphasis on could—be breaking.
The newest survey, fielded between Could 30 and June 2, reveals that 46% of registered voters now have a positive opinion of congressional Democrats, in comparison with 45% who view them unfavorably. In the meantime, Republicans are dealing with challenges: 44% of voters see them positively, whereas 48% see them negatively.
These could look like modest variations, however the hole has grown extra constant. Democrats additionally lead on the generic congressional poll, which asks whether or not individuals would again the Democrat or the Republican for his or her native Home district if the election have been held at present. Add these knowledge factors up they usually appear to point that voters are turning on the GOP’s trifecta in Washington.
President Donald Trump and his large board of tariffs, lots of which he would quickly stroll again, seem with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick within the Rose Backyard of the White Home on April 2.
One purpose for the shift is likely to be Trump’s tariff agenda, which Individuals hate and which Republican lawmakers typically refuse to criticize. One other might be that the Republican Occasion is embroiled in a public dispute over whether or not to help Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”—a large, unpopular package deal that will reduce meals help, strip medical health insurance from hundreds of thousands, and danger wrecking the U.S. economic system.
As an alternative of tackling voter issues concerning the invoice, Republicans are bullying former President Joe Biden for some purpose, whereas in addition they rally round Trump, who stays unpopular in Morning Seek the advice of’s polling. Forty-six p.c of voters view him favorably, whereas 51% view him unfavorably. Heck, even Elon Musk is brazenly criticizing the invoice.
For now, Democrats appear to be benefiting from this distinction. So, sure, it’s a optimistic begin, however now the query is whether or not Democrats can maintain this momentum and carry it into 2026.
Republicans have soured on inexperienced vitality
Whereas wind and solar energy stay broadly widespread, help for these vitality sources has slipped since Trump’s first time period, pushed by a pointy decline amongst Republicans and GOP-leaning voters, in keeping with new knowledge from the Pew Analysis Middle.
Since 2020, Republican help for increasing photo voltaic has dropped from 84% to 61%, and for wind energy from 75% to simply 48%.
Pew’s findings are particularly hanging on vitality priorities. In 2020, 65% of Republicans mentioned the U.S. ought to give attention to increasing wind and solar energy moderately than oil, coal, and pure gasoline. Now, although, 67% say the nation ought to prioritize fossil fuels over renewables.
The shift comes as Republicans in Congress take into account rushing up approvals for oil and gasoline initiatives and slashing incentives for inexperienced vitality. On the identical time, Environmental Safety Company Administrator Lee Zeldin has labored to weaken the company and promote local weather denialism from inside.
Youthful Republicans stay extra supportive of wind and photo voltaic than their older counterparts—a pattern seen throughout social gathering traces—however even their help is slipping. Simply 51% of Republicans ages 18 to 29 now say renewable vitality needs to be the precedence, down 16 factors from final yr.
Democrats, in contrast, nonetheless overwhelmingly again renewable vitality. In accordance with the ballot, 91% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters favor extra solar energy, and 87% help extra wind. These numbers have barely modified since Trump’s first time period. And in keeping with these views, 86% of Democrats say the U.S. ought to prioritize renewable growth over fossil fuels.
Whether or not Republicans’ shifting attitudes replicate real coverage desire, partisan signaling, or backlash to climate-focused laws, the outcome is a celebration pivoting away from the broad, cross-partisan consensus that existed only a few years in the past.
Any updates?
The Trump administration’s proposed price range would slash all funding for specialised providers that help LGBTQ+ youth by way of the 988 Suicide and Disaster Lifeline—however voters aren’t having it. A brand new Information for Progress ballot finds that 69% of probably voters wish to maintain these providers intact, in contrast with simply 23% who help the cuts. The opposition is bipartisan—maybe a mirrored image of shifting views inside the GOP on points like same-sex marriage—with 56% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats backing continued funding.
Vibe examine
In accordance with Civiqs, the share of registered voters who imagine the economic system is getting worse is basically the identical because it was within the days after Trump’s introduced his “Liberation Day” tariffs rollout (53% on April 2 and 52% on Friday)—however extra individuals say the economic system is enhancing: up from 31% on April 2 to 35% on Friday.
After all, it’s Republicans who’re driving that optimism—71% now say the economic system is enhancing, in contrast with solely 3% of Democrats who say the identical. Nonetheless, that might be extra about notion than actuality, particularly since Trump’s tariffs are solely simply beginning to shake up the job market.
Nonetheless, you’ll be able to’t blame individuals for hoping. A Gallup ballot performed in early April discovered that 38% of Individuals anticipated financial progress over the following six months, whereas 48% thought it will decline. Optimism could also be slipping, however it hasn’t disappeared.
It would all be wishful considering—particularly if Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” turns into legislation—however for now, individuals are nonetheless holding on to hope.
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