Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of crucial polling tendencies or information factors it’s essential find out about. You’ll additionally discover data-based updates on previous Day by day Kos reporting, plus a vibe test on a development that’s driving politics.
How Trump beat Harris
A serious new report offers recent insights into the 2024 presidential citizens that enabled Donald Trump to defeat Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
After each even-year election, the Democratic information agency Catalist releases an in-depth evaluation of the citizens—integrating voter recordsdata, census information, polling, and modeling—to higher perceive who turned out, who modified their votes, and the place they shifted.
In its newest report, Catalist finds that Harris misplaced about 2 share factors of help in contrast with Joe Biden within the 2020 election. And for the primary time within the agency’s information, lower than 50% of latest voters—a bunch that sometimes is youthful and extra numerous—supported the Democratic nominee.
Right here’s how that performed out on the bottom.
The 2024 citizens was 3 factors much less white than it was in 2012, and voters ages 18 to 29 accounted for 15% of the 2024 citizens, 1 level lower than in 2020. Nevertheless, these youthful voters additionally didn’t help Democrats the way in which they as soon as did, as a result of that coalition is now extra receptive to Republicans.
Males of colour, for instance, swung laborious towards Trump. Harris underperformed Biden by 6 factors amongst males total, however the decline was even sharper amongst Latino males (-12) and Black males (-8). Whereas ladies offered Harris with comparable margins in contrast with Biden, she misplaced floor with Asian ladies (-3) and younger Latino voters (-12). In the meantime, Harris failed to enhance on Biden’s nationwide numbers with Black ladies, a crucial Democratic bloc.
The 2024 citizens additionally had a larger share of recurring voters than in both of the earlier two presidential elections. And whereas much less frequent voters comprised a smaller share of the citizens final 12 months, they broke for Trump, with Harris underperforming Biden amongst those that had voted in only one to a few of the previous 4 elections (2022, 2020, 2018, and 2016).
All of those points—and extra—are why we discover ourselves embroiled in Trump’s chaos but once more.
FAA chaos fuels public fears
Flying will get a nasty rap lately—and actually, it’s not laborious to see why.
Since January’s lethal crash close to Washington, D.C., the Trump administration has dodged accountability for aviation points, and whereas it could be attempting to employees up on air visitors controllers, the Federal Aviation Administration can be shedding employees.
The result’s a rising sense amongst voters that flying isn’t secure anymore. In response to the newest Civiqs ballot for Day by day Kos, 71% of registered voters imagine air journey is much less secure now than it was 5 years in the past. That features a hanging 85% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans, suggesting it is a uncommon space of bipartisan unease.
And whereas voters might really feel flying is riskier now, they’re not aligned on who in charge. When requested who’s extra liable for latest points concerning air visitors management, 35% blame the previous Biden administration, whereas a barely bigger group (39%) blame the Trump administration. Unsurprisingly, there’s a partisan break up: Democrats usually tend to level a finger at Trump, whereas Republicans pile on Biden.
However right here’s the factor: In most regards, flying is about as secure because it’s ever been, at the least up to now.
Regardless of high-profile crashes, the variety of month-to-month accidents within the U.S. amongst personal and business airline flights is consistent with latest norms, based on information from the Nationwide Transportation Security Board. As an illustration, the information for final month is preliminary, but when it holds, it might be the second-safest April since 2000. And the most secure April got here in 2020, on the top of the COVID-19 pandemic, when there have been far fewer flights than typical.
What’s driving the misperception of the protection of air journey? Media protection may be an enormous a part of it. (We at Day by day Kos have coated our justifiable share of flying fiascos.) And the sheer visibility of accidents makes them really feel extra widespread than they’re.
However that doesn’t let Trump off the hook. He’s achieved little to instill public confidence in air journey, repeatedly refusing to take duty for accidents. In the meantime, behind closed doorways, his shut ally Elon Musk reportedly pushed to fireplace air visitors controllers amid what was already a scarcity—as a result of who wants oversight at 600 miles per hour?
President Donald Trump
The underside line: The Trump administration appears decided to flirt with catastrophe at a time when voters are already scared.
Shedding the coverage warfare
Trump’s second time period has been marked by a flurry of unpopular govt actions, however new information exhibits simply how unpopular Trump’s agenda is.
YouGov just lately launched public opinion information on 250 insurance policies proposed, endorsed, or applied by the Trump administration. The info is pulled from polls performed since Trump took workplace, they usually didn’t point out him or different political figures by title. The survey questions had been stripped down and plain, with Individuals requested “Would you support or oppose the following?”
And the outcomes are brutal for Trump
In averages throughout practically each coverage space, Trump is underwater. Immigration (-6), the economic system (-8), schooling (-14), international coverage (-25), and well being care (-31)—all are web adverse, that means extra individuals oppose them than help them on common. Just one coverage space exhibits Trump with extra common help than opposition: LGBTQ+ rights. There, 48% of Individuals have backed his method, whereas 38% have opposed it, on common.
Why the outlier? It’s probably as a result of Trump’s LGBTQ+ insurance policies are actually about attacking transgender individuals. As an illustration, somewhat than loudly going after same-sex marriage, which a powerful majority of Individuals wish to stay authorized, Trump is focusing on a weak minority. And sadly, discomfort with transgender individuals stays widespread, even amongst Democrats. As grim as that’s, it explains why a variety of voters help Trump right here.
Breaking down YouGov’s information by political occasion additionally reveals the place Trump’s agenda performs—and the place it flops. Take his govt order barring colleges from utilizing range, fairness, and inclusion ideas to judge self-discipline: Republicans adore it (web +56 help), however independents (-4) and Democrats (-44) reject it, based on a ballot YouGov performed just lately.
Or his federal hiring freeze: Democrats hate it (web -44 help), and even independents are break up, with a -12 web disapproval total for this bloc, however Republicans nonetheless broadly again it (+55).
That exhibits how Trump’s insurance policies usually provoke main backlash, even once they ballot abovewater together with his base.
Total, the numbers paint a transparent image: Most of Trump’s agenda simply isn’t in style.
Any updates?
Congressional Republicans are pushing deep cuts to Medicaid, the well being program that covers hundreds of thousands of low-income and disabled Individuals, however Individuals aren’t on board: Simply 12% help chopping funding for or eliminating Medicaid, based on a brand new YouGov ballot. Solely 17% again cuts to Supplemental Vitamin Help Program, the federal meals help program. A brand new Civiqs ballot for Day by day Kos backs this up: 67% of registered voters oppose lowering funding for Medicaid, whereas solely 28% help it.
Trump’s antics on social media are properly documented—and broadly reviled. In response to YouGov, 42% of Individuals have a adverse view of content material posted to Trump’s and the White Home’s social media accounts, whereas solely 27% view it positively. Unsurprisingly, Republicans are probably the most receptive. However when the White Home is out right here posting dystopian ASMR movies of immigrants getting deported, what sort of response do you anticipate?
Vibe test
Democrats are probably the most unforgiving. Solely 53% of them now view him favorably, down from 67% earlier than the Kirk interview.
Andrew Mangan contributed analysis.
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