Canadians love American booze, spending tons of of tens of millions on their favorite drinks yearly. However a tariff battle between each international locations may put Canadian tipplers in unhealthy spirits.
U.S. President Donald Trump may hit Canada with tariffs as early as subsequent week, elevating the dangers that Ottawa would impose retaliatory tariffs on the US amid rising fears of a commerce battle.
Trudeau signalled that Canada’s counter-tariffs may cowl the worth of Trump’s proposed 25-per cent tariffs on all Canadian items.
“I support the principle of dollar-for-dollar matching tariffs. It’s something that we are absolutely going to be looking at if that is how they move forward,” he instructed reporters.
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A kind of potential targets, primarily based on earlier retaliatory tariffs? American booze.
In 2023, U.S. alcohol exports to Canada amounted to US$262 million (C$377 million) a 12 months, with American whiskey accounting for US$76 million (C$110 million) of that.
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“Look, I like Kentucky bourbon as much as anybody else, but going without it is a fairly modest inconvenience in the grand scheme of things, particularly when you look at it in the context of the serious damage that a tariff war would inflict on both economies,” Cunningham mentioned.
Nicholas Ti, an economist at Toronto Metropolitan College, mentioned tariffs are certain to show Canadian customers away from U.S. booze.
The proof, he mentioned, was in Trump’s earlier tariff battle with the European Union.
“Only six years ago, Trump started a trade war with the EU, and one of the policies that they adopted in the EU was like a 50 per cent tariff on a bunch of American products, particularly whiskey,” he mentioned.
“The value of American whiskey exports to the EU fell by over 20 per cent.”
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Sylvanus Afesorgbor, a professor on the College of Guelph’s Division of Meals, Agriculture and Useful resource Economics, mentioned shifts in shopper behaviour would depend upon an idea known as the elasticity of demand – the change within the demand for a product if its value shifts.
“Whether the price goes up or not, some people may still want to consume the same product because they’ve developed a taste for it. They may still want to buy even with a higher price,” he mentioned.
He mentioned the tariff risk is a reminder for Canada to look to different commerce companions.
“We have to think about diversifying, because it looks like we are very much dependent on the U.S.”
Ti mentioned elasticity will differ primarily based on what sort of drink is seeing a value improve.
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“The elasticity of this demand is lower for beer. So overall, if you increase beer taxes, it has a smaller effect on beer consumption than if you increase, for example, spirits taxes.”
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He mentioned heavy drinkers are more likely to scale back the quantity of alcohol they drink, whereas occasional drinkers might tolerate greater value choices.
He mentioned an even bigger think about figuring out shopper behaviour is allocating shelf area — one thing that’s already a distinguished risk in Ontario.
“I’ve sent a direction to the LCBO that if these tariffs come to clear off every bit of U.S. alcohol off the shelves. Let’s start promoting more Ontario-made wines, and the vodkas, the spirits. That’s what we need to do,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford mentioned Monday.
Ford has inspired different provinces to contemplate the identical.
Ti mentioned the Ontario authorities’s monopoly on alcohol gross sales in Ontario “gives them enormous ability to dictate consumer behaviour through things like promotions, shelf placement, and of course, the decision of which brands to stock or not.”
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What are the alternate options?
Davin de Kergommeaux is the creator of Canadian Whisky: The Important Transportable Skilled, a information on Canadian whisky. He mentioned Canadian whisky lovers needn’t fear a few lack of choices if U.S. whisky is off the cabinets or costlier.
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“I don’t think we should be wringing our hands because we have whisky up here that is every bit as enjoyable in all categories – entry level, medium (quality) whisky and some really top notch premium whiskies as well,” he mentioned.
“I think it’s just a matter of going to the liquor store and asking the clerk for help you if you can’t find it yourself.”
Kergommeaux mentioned whereas many Canadians have a style for American whisky, Canadian whisky has traditionally been widespread south of the border. Throughout two main occasions in U.S. historical past — the American Civil Conflict and the Prohibition period — when American liquor shares grew dry, People appeared north for good whisky.
“It has never lost that popularity. It is still more popular than American whisky in the U.S.,” he mentioned.
Joshua Richolt is the beverage director on the NH Assortment New York Madison Avenue Lodge and was raised in Alberta.
“Canadian whisky is already basically the same spirit as American whisky, as both are corn-based. Bourbon is more often distilled at a lower proof, however, and a lot more of the congeners, oils, and other flavouring agents are more heavily present as a result,” he mentioned.
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Nevertheless, consultants say there are alternate options for bourbon too.
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Stephanie Lusk, a chef and social media influencer, mentioned, “An alternative type of whiskey that we have here in Canada is called rye whisky and is made with Canadian wheat. This is really great because there are so many different options and flavors and it’s also closer to home.”
Kergommeaux mentioned the disaster may convey alternative for Canadian distillers, whereas giving customers an opportunity to “rediscover” Canadian whisky.
What about wine and beer?
In 2024, Canada imported wine value C$51.4 million from the U.S.
Most American wine comes from California, however Lusk says there are home wine rising areas that Canadians may look to in the event that they need to discover extra home choices – significantly Niagara Falls, Ont., and British Columbia.
Richolt mentioned Canadian craft beer is already changing American beer in lots of markets.
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“I live in NYC and travel home numerous times each year to Alberta. Beer is a local tradition and best served fresh. There is nothing better than discovering smaller craft breweries and their individual specialties,” he mentioned.
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“The most popular cocktail whisky cocktail is the whisky sour. You can make that with any Canadian whisky,” Kergommeaux mentioned.
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Lusk recommends utilizing rye whisky and giving it extra of a Canadian aptitude.
“One of the nice things about Canadian whiskies is that they actually complement maple syrup really well,” she mentioned.
Whisky sours are sometimes made with whisky, lime juice, egg whites and easy syrup.
“You could replace the simple syrup with some maple syrup and bourbon with Canadian whisky. And now you have a Canadian rye sour,” she mentioned.
Richolt mentioned most conventional recipes weren’t initially primarily based on bourbon.
“Rye, which was more common, can often be substituted and is often done so in the best cocktail bars in the world. Many of the best rye producers in the world are in Canada, just ask Whistlepig, High West and many other American brands that use Canadian rye,” he mentioned.
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Lusk famous there are additionally nonalcoholic choices.
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“There are nonalcoholic whiskies, wines, beers. Just having something in your hand at a party or at an event, often makes you feel like you’re part of it and you forget that you’re not even drinking the alcohol at all,” she mentioned.
Lusk additionally recommends wanting up recipes for mocktails.
“They’ve still got a little bit of sugar, though,” she mentioned.
