Prompt response to weekend developments …
1. A loss may very well be a win
Use no matter phrase involves thoughts to explain Oregon’s victory over Washington (emphatic, resounding, dominating, and so forth.). The Hotline prefers the time period multifaceted.
As a result of the 49-21 demolition Saturday night in Autzen Stadium had as many layers because it did Oregon touchdowns.
It secured the Geese’ first undefeated common season since 2010, which doesn’t imply a lot within the broader context of this system’s speedy objectives. (They’d already clinched a berth within the Huge Ten championship sport.)
It eliminated a boulder off coach Dan Lanning’s again after three prior losses to the Huskies, which can also be meaningless in opposition to the backdrop of the 2024 season.
And it created a win-win scenario for the Geese subsequent weekend, and that, of us, is extraordinarily related to the prime mission in Eugene: Successful the nationwide championship.
Oregon (12-0) now has two attainable paths into the School Soccer Playoff, however they aren’t created equal.
— In the event that they beat Penn State on Saturday in Indianapolis, the Geese will enter the CFP because the No. 1 total seed, with a bye into the quarterfinals and a date with the winner of the No. 8-9 sport within the Rose Bowl on New 12 months’s Day.
That’s not the perfect situation that you simply would possibly anticipate, as a result of the No. 8-9 winner might very nicely be a two-loss group from the SEC. Or it may very well be Ohio State.
In different phrases, Oregon’s opponent can be a group that may match the Geese on the line of scrimmage and possesses the playmakers wanted to maintain tempo with the Geese’ high-powered assault.
Additionally, Oregon can be carrying the burden of an undefeated report — the nation’s solely undefeated report — by means of three grueling rounds of the CFP.
— If the Geese lose to Penn State, they doubtless would drop to the No. 5 seed within the CFP, which is assigned to the highest-ranked at-large group. (The highest-four seeds, and opening-round byes, go to the highest-ranked convention champions.)
Because the No. 5 seed, Oregon would host an opening-round sport on Dec. 20-21 in opposition to the No. 12 seed and, with a victory, advance to the quarterfinals to face the No. 4 seed.
These opponents are prone to be the champions of the Mountain West (Boise State or UNLV) and the Huge 12 (Arizona State or Iowa State). We don’t know which convention winner would be the No. 4 seed and which would be the No. 12, however the distinction in personnel is so slim that it gained’t matter all that a lot to the Geese.
Oregon would have two weeks off, then play a Huge 12 or MW opponent at house. With a victory, the Geese would have 10 days to arrange for a Huge 12 or MW group within the quarterfinals.
In our view, the popular path is the second: A loss within the Huge Ten title sport, the No. 5 seed, a house sport in opposition to the No. 12 after which a impartial web site matchup with the No. 4.
We aren’t suggesting the Geese ought to lose on objective in Indianapolis. However it’s clear the victory over Washington created a win-win situation: Both they’re the Huge Ten champions and the No. 1 seed, or they lose the title sport and have what simply is perhaps a neater path into the semifinals.
Which is the place they wish to be.
2. The Tempe turnaround
As anticipated, the Huge 12 was the final to set its matchup for the convention championship sport — no different energy convention entered the ultimate weekend with extra groups alive within the title chase.
However because the outcomes rolled in over the course of the weekend, the record of contenders dwindled … till there have been three.
Arizona State was the primary group to safe a berth in Arlington, due to the mix of its victory over Arizona and TCU’s win over Cincinnati.
However the Solar Devils didn’t be taught the identification of their opponent till 10:45 p.m. (Pacific), when Brigham Younger beat Houston to get rid of Colorado.
They are going to face Iowa State, which defeated Kansas State 29-21 on Saturday in a frigid version of Farmageddon.
On this unprecedented season, with so many gobsmacking outcomes and unbelievable finishes — Georgia wanted eight overtimes to fend off Georgia Tech on Friday night time — the Solar Devils stand on the brief record of fantastic tales.
They have been 3-9 final season and picked to complete sixteenth within the Huge 12 this fall however mixed a first-year quarterback, a second-year coach and a eternally tailback to provide a magical run to the convention title sport.
ASU is 4 quarters from the CFP, of us.
Take into consideration that.
3. The Tucson collapse
After you have completed pondering ASU’s unbelievable rise, take a second to think about ghastly Arizona’s fall.
One yr after ending with 10 wins, the Wildcats ended their season with eight losses — a surprising flip of occasions that left many followers calling for the varsity to terminate coach Brent Brennan after his first season.
Brennan deserves each ounce of the criticism, and we aren’t ready to state definitively that he will probably be again for 2025.
However dismissing the pinnacle coach after one season for efficiency alone — and never for an off-the-field subject that embarrasses the college — is a step not often seen throughout the game.
Our suspicion is that Brennan, who has deep ties to the varsity, will return with a brand new teaching employees and very brief leash.
If the Wildcats aren’t bowl-eligible right now subsequent yr, his tenure might finish.
4. November fade
Few groups in any nook of the nation collapsed down the stretch as fully as Washington State.
A fortnight in the past, the Cougars have been 8-1, ranked 18th and on the outskirts of the playoff race.
Then got here the ugly loss at New Mexico, adopted by an equally stunning stumble at Oregon State.
Associated Articles
School Sports activities |
Mailbag: Why the CFP rankings might immediate main modifications, a Pac-12 title sport, future USC-Stanford matchups and extra
School Sports activities |
West Coast recruiting: Cal and Oregon duel for high quarterback prospect whereas Washington goes large
School Sports activities |
CFB picks Week 14: Our detailed forecast for Oregon-Washington, Arizona State’s benefit, USC’s problem and Cal’s alternative
School Sports activities |
Better of the West MBB energy rankings: Gonzaga on high regardless of loss whereas Oregon soars after large wins
School Sports activities |
Holy Rating: Will Utah HC Kyle Whittingham retire after UCF sport?
However the topper got here Saturday night time when Washington State blew a double-digit lead, failed to attain within the second half and misplaced, at house, to lowly Wyoming.
As unfathomable because it may appear, the Cougars misplaced all three video games as double-digit favorites:
— They have been 10.5-point favorites at New Mexico and misplaced by three.
— They have been 11-point favorites at Oregon State and misplaced by three.
— They have been 17-point favorites over Wyoming and misplaced by one.
Maybe a comparable three-game stretch has unfolded someplace throughout main school soccer in some unspecified time in the future over time, however we aren’t conscious of it.
Coach Jake Dickert should take an intensive have a look at each facet of his program.
What occurred to the Cougars (8-4) over the previous three weekends is unacceptable on each degree.
5. Bowl math replace
With convention play full, the postseason image is lastly taking form on the West Coast.
Any Pac-12 legacy college that’s bowl-eligible however not concerned within the CFP will take part in the identical bowls affiliated with the convention over time, from the Alamo on all the way down to the Independence.
Particular assignments will probably be decided by the bowls themselves, however we all know that seven of the 12 colleges are eligible: Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, Washington and Washington State.
With Oregon assured of a CFP berth, every group will transfer up one spot within the lineup from its pure place.
If Arizona State additionally qualifies for the CFP, everybody would leap two rungs.
In different phrases, not less than one of many three 6-6 groups (Cal, USC and Washington) will transfer right into a bowl — hi there, Las Vegas — that sometimes hosts groups with eight or 9 wins.
*** Ship recommendations, feedback and ideas (confidentiality assured) to [email protected] or name 408-920-5716
*** Observe me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
