Republicans are in a full-on panic following Tuesday’s particular election in Tennessee’s seventh District, after the GOP candidate underperformed Donald Trump by a whopping 13-point margin.
And it is simple to see why.
Republicans needed to spend $3.5 million to defend this seat. Provided that there are roughly 102 GOP-held Home seats that voted for Trump by smaller margins than Tennessee’s seventh, based on information from The Downballot, that might imply Republicans would want to spend a whole lot of thousands and thousands of {dollars} in areas that weren’t anticipated to be aggressive.
“Couples therapy” by Mike Luckovich
Even worse for the GOP is that if each Home race within the 2026 midterms swung towards Democrats as a lot because it did in Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District, Democrats would knock off a whopping 44 Republican seats, based on Downballot information.
That may quantity to much more seats than the 40 Democrats picked up on internet within the 2018 midterms, when Trump’s unpopularity and Republicans’ failed Obamacare repeal effort led to a blue wave.
“Tonight’s election results prove exactly what the DCCC has known all along—Democrats are on offense not just in the standard swing districts but in red terrain across the country,” Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee spokesperson Madison Andrus mentioned in a press release. “Our expansive battlefield reveals that Democrats are able to struggle in rural districts, in Latino communities, in Trump nation, and in all places in between. Home Republicans are formally on discover—Democrats are taking again the bulk in 2026.”
The DCCC particularly listed out 9 GOP-held seats at the moment rated as safely Republican or closely leaning towards the GOP that Democrats are actually concentrating on—together with Reps. Andy Ogles of Tennessee; Cory Mills, Maria Elvira Salazar, and Anna Paulina Luna of Florida; and Eli Crane of Arizona.
After all, not each contest would see a uniform swing towards Democrats. Candidates and elections nonetheless matter on the finish of the day.
Associated | GOP in disaster mode after Tennessee particular election
But provided that Democrats solely have to internet three seats for a majority, they’re effectively on their technique to securing the Home majority in 2026.
“The GOP should be running for the hills this morning because the blue wave is building,” CNN’s Harry Enten mentioned Wednesday morning, including that since 2005, the get together that overperformed in particular elections went on to win the Home within the midterm elections.
“Excuse time for Republicans is over,” Enten added, “Because I hear all about these special elections, ‘Oh the turnout is so low it’s not representative of what will happen in a midterm election.’ The turnout last night in Tennessee’s 7th District was equal to the turnout in the 2022 midterm election. So the blue wave? It seems to be building right out of the center of Tennessee.”
