Republicans’ unimpressive victory in Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District Tuesday night time has the occasion terrified, with lawmakers and strategists alike fearing that various Home races as soon as seen as protected for his or her occasion will now be in play throughout the 2026 midterm elections.
Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps defeated Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn by simply 9 proportion factors—an enormous underperformance from the 22 factors by which President Donald Trump received the district simply final yr. Much more worrisome for the GOP is that the consequence occurred with turnout extra typical of a midterm than a particular election.
Put merely, this wasn’t a low-turnout election, so it’s arduous for Republicans to jot down it off as a fluke.
And provided that Trump carried dozens of Republican-held Home seats by smaller margins than Tennessee’s seventh District, an identical Democratic overperformance in 2026 would possible trigger a blue tsunami that may flip the Home and will presumably even put the Senate in play.
“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” Republican strategist Matt Whitlock wrote in a put up on X. “If every House district in the country shifted left by this same amount—about 15 points—we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018—estimated 43 seats flipping.”
GOP lawmakers are additionally sounding the alarm.
Democrat Aftyn Behn, left, and Republican Matt Van Epps, who ran within the particular election for Tennessee’s seventh District.
“I’m glad we won. But the GOP should not ignore the Virginia, New Jersey, and Tennessee elections,” Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon, who selected to retire moderately than run for reelection in his aggressive district, informed Politico. “We must reach swing voters. America wants some normalcy.”
The GOP’s poor exhibiting in Tennessee got here whilst Republicans spent thousands and thousands within the district to attempt to stave off catastrophe. Republicans burned by means of $3.5 million to attempt to increase Van Epps and produce down Behn. If each district Trump carried by greater than 20 factors had been to require the identical quantity of spending in 2026, Republicans could be in for a world of harm.
For now, nonetheless, the most important worry for Republicans is that their lawmakers are deciding to retire moderately than run for reelection. Already, an unusually giant variety of Republicans have chosen to both retire or run for different workplaces in 2026, leaving their occasion to defend various aggressive open seats, together with Bacon’s Nebraska district and others in Arizona and Michigan.
Home Speaker Mike Johnson tried to rally his troops on Tuesday, saying in a closed-door assembly with GOP Home lawmakers that he thinks the occasion will defy the percentages and increase their majority.
And he publicly stated on Wednesday that Van Epps’ smaller margin of victory is not making him sweat.
“This doesn’t concern me at all,” Johnson stated. “Democrats put millions of dollars in. They were really trying to set the scenario that there’s some sort of wave going on. There’s not. We just proved that there’s not.”
However it would not appear like his members had been shopping for his spin.
“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” an unnamed Home Republican informed Politico.
And after Johnson’s pep discuss, one Republican lawmaker informed Politico, concerning Tennessee’s outcomes, “If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged.”
Let the unhinging start.
