If it’s November, BYU have to be getting hosed.
That’s the prevailing sentiment in Provo and each nook and cranny of Cougar fandom: The Faculty Soccer Playoff choice committee hates BYU.
It hated the Cougars final 12 months, after they have been the lowest-ranked two-loss group from an influence convention, and it clearly, indisputably hates the Cougars this 12 months:
Within the CFP rankings launched Tuesday, BYU was No. 11 — the lowest-ranked one-loss group and, the truth is, the one one-loss group outdoors the highest 10.
The Hotline shouldn’t be right here to condone the committee’s course of, which is extremely flawed, or to justify the way in which BYU (10-1) is being handled.
We’re right here to clarify it, as absolute best, utilizing 12 years of shut remark.
Our modus comprehendi consists of 1) thorough readings of the committee chair’s transcripts which might be offered every week following his teleconference with reporters, 2) discussions with former committee members and three) quite a few background interviews with trade sources who’ve been briefed on committee machinations.
However earlier than we begin, one nugget of context: No media outlet was extra essential of the committee’s remedy of BYU final 12 months than the Hotline.
We devoted a number of columns to the subject and provided reams of supporting knowledge:
— On Nov. 7, 2024, the Hotline addressed the Huge 12’s future as a one-bid convention based mostly on BYU’s placement within the preliminary rankings and famous:
“Brigham Young (8-0) has two wins over ranked opponents (SMU and Kansas State), yet the ninth-ranked Cougars are five spots behind Miami (9-0), which has one win over a ranked opponent, and four spots behind Texas (7-1), which has zero wins over ranked opponents.”
— On Nov. 20, we printed a column titled “Holy Score: BYU is getting a raw deal from the CFP selection committee and we have the facts to prove it.”
The column wasn’t solely data-driven; there was a morsel of opinion combined in: “We chuckled at the sight of the Cougars being slotted behind SMU — the situation is pure comedy.”
— On Dec. 5, we examined how BYU’s destiny within the CFP rankings — particularly, its placement relative to SMU — ought to immediate the Huge 12 to reassess its technique:
“The Big 12 contender with the best strength-of-schedule and the best strength-of-record and the best victory over a Power Four opponent and the best overall resume in the conference isn’t even playing for the Big 12 championship.”
Put one other manner: We’re assessing the committee’s remedy of BYU this season from the attitude of getting skewered the committee for BYU’s placement final season.
And in full candor, the Hotline doesn’t view the conditions as equivalent. The remedy final 12 months was worse.
Granted, the Cougars aren’t receiving a wholly truthful shake within the rankings this fall, however the scenario isn’t as egregious because it was in 2024 for one purpose: There isn’t a equal to the SMU end result. BYU isn’t 10 spots behind a group it beat head-to-head on the highway.
Up to now, the Cougars are winless towards the ten groups slotted above them Tuesday night. They’ve performed one, Texas Tech, and misplaced badly.
The truth is, the end result of the Nov. 8 collision in Lubbock is vastly extra damaging to BYU than followers understand.
Let’s try to think about the scenario from the committee’s perspective.
The Texas Tech showdown occurred simply 4 days after the preliminary rankings have been launched — rankings that positioned the undefeated Cougars within the seventh place, one spot forward of the one-loss Crimson Raiders.
On the time, BYU was the lowest-ranked undefeated group from an influence convention however had performed a reasonably weak schedule, with one win over a Prime 25 opponent.
The possibility to evaluate the Cougars and Crimson Raiders straight was excellent for the committee, which might choose which group was one of the best within the Huge 12 and whether or not both, or each — or neither — could be worthy of an at-large berth on choice day (Dec. 7).
And the Cougars failed miserably.
They have been utterly overpowered within the 29-7 loss that might have been far worse if the Crimson Raiders had stayed on the gasoline within the fourth quarter.
The Cougars didn’t appear to be they belonged on the identical subject as Texas Tech.
Even worse, they didn’t appear to be they belonged within the playoff.
This committee cares deeply concerning the visuals. That grew to become evident with the preliminary rankings (Nov. 4), when chair Mack Rhoades, who has since stepped down, was requested the next:
How a lot do “the eye test and the things that you guys see and believe while watching the games take weight in comparison to the actual data?”
Rhoades’ response:
“We refer to it as art and science. I think the art is watching the team on film and tape and how good they are, how physical they are up front, offensive line, defensive line play, how good are they up the middle, their quarterback play, their skill players, and then certainly contemplating and looking at metrics.”
And in case there was any doubt concerning the significance of 1 particular metric, margin-of-defeat, CFP govt director Wealthy Clark addressed that very subject with reporters this week.
“There’s a difference when a team gets beat 70-7 versus a team that gets beat by a walk-off field goal,” Clark mentioned Tuesday night in response to a generic query concerning the margin-of-defeat issue.
“There’s always an assessment of how well they played in the game, and if they do lose, how badly did they lose? Were they competitive in the game or were they not? I would say that it’s a factor.”
BYU misplaced badly.
BYU was not aggressive.
So sure, that efficiency had a higher impression on BYU’s profile than a single loss, particularly for a committee that clearly leans into the attention check.
Now, outraged followers are absolutely conscious that the group ranked one spot above the Cougars, Alabama, opened the season with a loss to Florida State, which is at the moment 5-6 and nearer to the underside of the ACC than the highest.
It’s a nasty loss for the Crimson Tide that’s getting worse by the week.
However Alabama has a stronger assortment of wins than BYU, together with a highway victory over a top-five group (Georgia) and three victories over ranked opponents (No. 4 Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt and No. 19 Tennessee), whereas BYU has simply two (No. 13 Utah and No. 25 Arizona).
What’s extra, Alabama has a considerably stronger strength-of-schedule than BYU, whereas BYU has a barely higher strength-of-record.
In different phrases, the respective resumes and eye exams are shut, which is mirrored within the one-spot disparity in rating.
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And guess the place the present cutoff line is positioned? Between Alabama and BYU. If the CFP started at present, the Crimson Tide could be the final group in and the Cougars could be the final group out.
We’ll say it once more: BYU didn’t appear to be a playoff group within the greatest sport of its season. It wasn’t only a loss. It was a you-don’t-belong-in-our-club loss.
And that isn’t going to alter, people.
Barring absolute mayhem, BYU’s solely path into the CFP is thru the Huge 12 championship: Deal with UCF this week, take down Texas Tech in a rematch in Arlington subsequent week and declare the automated bid that accompanies the trophy.
The at-large path seems blocked for BYU, and that has been the case for 2 weeks.
Is the method extra subjective than it ought to be? Yep.
Do committee members make it up as they go alongside? Completely.
Does model bias exist within the choice course of, favoring the SEC and Huge Ten? No query.
It’s a flawed system, and BYU as soon as once more has been left with the brief straw.
However should you’re making an attempt to parse injustices, the Hotline would argue the committee’s remedy of the Cougars was extra egregious final season, when a head-to-head highway win appeared to rely for nothing, than this season, when a head-to-head highway loss seems to rely for the whole lot.
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