The U isn’t simply again — so is its swagger.
Miami owns the state of Florida, having knocked down South Florida, Florida and Florida State, additional cementing its case for the highest workforce within the nation. Penn State’s gorgeous loss at UCLA doesn’t assist Oregon. Texas dropping in The Swamp doesn’t assist Ohio State.
Miami incomes its first highway win — in opposition to an FSU workforce that beat a now-surging Alabama — helped the Canes additional legitimize what might be their first No. 1 rating within the CFP period. The 13-member choice committee doesn’t launch its first rating till Nov. 4, however that is the most recent projection of what the group’s high 12 would seem like if it have been launched at this time.
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Projecting the highest 12
Miami freshman receiver Malachi Toney celebrates considered one of his two touchdowns in opposition to Florida State. AP Picture/Colin Hackley
Why they might be right here: The Canes have the most effective mixture of eye check and résumé, with wins in opposition to Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida and now Florida State. The Canes earned their first highway win of the season, and so they did it in opposition to their in-state rival, formally claiming the unofficial state title. Miami additionally entered Week 6 ranked No. 10 within the nation in whole effectivity and No. 4 in ESPN’s energy of document metric. The Canes are checking the entire containers for the committee’s No. 1 workforce, together with star energy with quarterback Carson Beck and defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr.
Why they might be decrease: Undefeated Ohio State gained at Minnesota, however it’s exhausting to think about the committee members giving the Buckeyes the nod for the highest spot given Miami’s résumé — until they really believed Ohio State is extra proficient.
Have to know: That was seemingly Miami’s final probability to impress the choice committee in opposition to a ranked opponent. It gained’t matter if the Canes proceed to play like this. Miami can clinch a spot within the playoff if it wins the ACC — which it’s on monitor to do — however even a runner-up end ought to cement a spot.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 1 at SMU. Miami ought to win this recreation — it’s the extra proficient workforce — however it’s not a simple journey. And it is going to be the primary time all season that Miami leaves its house state.
Why they might be right here: The season-opening win in opposition to Texas is nice — however not nice — after Texas misplaced at Florida on Saturday. The Buckeyes’ place within the pecking order is much less about one standout win and extra concerning the regular consistency anticipated from a nationwide title contender. They’ve gained on the highway in opposition to a good Washington workforce that simply rallied for a highway win at Maryland, and at house in opposition to Texas and Minnesota. The committee doesn’t look only for wins in opposition to top-25 groups; it additionally values wins in opposition to opponents over .500, and Ohio State now has three Energy 4 wins in opposition to such groups.
Why they might be increased: Miami hasn’t left its house state but, and Ohio State entered this week No. 3 within the nation in defensive effectivity, No. 12 in offensive effectivity and No. 3 general — forward of the Canes in every class.
Have to know: Saturday’s recreation at Illinois abruptly seems extra daunting than the Nov. 1 house recreation in opposition to Penn State. The truth is that Ohio State ought to win each, however Illinois is coming off back-to-back Huge Ten wins in opposition to USC and Purdue, whereas the Nittany Lions have been surprised at UCLA.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 29 at Michigan. Sound acquainted? Ohio State has misplaced to its rival 4 straight instances, and the Wolverines are beginning to discover their id with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. Michigan beat Wisconsin on Saturday for its third straight win since dropping in Week 2 at Oklahoma.
Why they might be right here: The Geese had a bye week to get better following their double-overtime highway win at Penn State, and each groups above them gained. Oregon’s win in opposition to the Nittany Lions was diminished following Penn State’s loss at winless UCLA, and it was additionally the Geese’ first win in opposition to an FBS opponent above .500.
Why they might be increased: Oregon has been dominant in opposition to the weaker groups and located a solution to beat Penn State on the highway in a hostile whiteout setting. The committee might be extra impressed with Oregon’s cross-country win in opposition to two-loss PSU than Ohio State’s house win in opposition to Texas now that each have two losses. The Geese have two highway wins in contrast with Miami’s one.
Have to know: If Oregon doesn’t beat Indiana subsequent week, and it finishes 11-1, it could nonetheless be within the playoff, however it may not be within the Huge Ten title recreation. Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan throughout the common season. If Ohio State is undefeated, and Indiana and Oregon are the league’s solely different one-loss groups, IU would have the head-to-head tiebreaker (Penn State would have two losses, to Oregon and Ohio State). Due to the change in seeding this yr, Oregon can nonetheless earn one of many high 4 seeds and a first-round bye even when it doesn’t win the Huge Ten. This yr, the highest 4 seeds go to the committee’s high 4 groups — no matter if they’re convention champs.
Hardest remaining recreation: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This could be the final ranked opponent the Geese face throughout the common season following USC’s loss to Illinois final week.
Texas A&M receiver KC Concepcion dives for considered one of his two touchdowns in opposition to Mississippi State. Maria Lysaker/Imagn Photographs
Why they might be right here: The Aggies have gained three straight video games in opposition to robust opponents, additional proving that the Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame wasn’t an anomaly. Saturday’s win was in opposition to a Mississippi State workforce that has seemed a lot improved from a yr in the past, and the Sept. 27 house win in opposition to Auburn remains to be in opposition to an SEC workforce above .500. The nonconference highway win in opposition to the Irish, although, stays the most effective within the nation and can proceed to separate the Aggies so long as the Irish hold profitable, which they did once more on Saturday in opposition to Boise State.
Why they might be decrease: Ole Miss has a case to be ranked above the Aggies due to its spectacular efficiency within the win in opposition to LSU and its general physique of labor, which incorporates three SEC wins and a win in opposition to Tulane.
Have to know: The Aggies entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s energy of document metric, which implies the common high 25 opponent would have only a 20.1% probability of reaching the identical undefeated document in opposition to the identical opponents.
Hardest remaining recreation: Oct. 25 at LSU. That is the center recreation in three straight highway journeys, and though LSU’s offense has been common, its protection will probably be the most effective the Aggies face this season.
Why they might be right here: The Rebels had a bye week however earned their first assertion win on Sept. 27 in opposition to LSU. They’ve now gained 4 straight video games in opposition to respectable opponents, together with three SEC groups (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). The Sept. 20 win in opposition to Tulane may even be valued by the committee, because the Inexperienced Wave stay in rivalry for a playoff spot if they will win the American Convention. Total, this is likely one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, however Ole Miss can be passing the attention check as a whole workforce.
Why they might be decrease: Kentucky and Arkansas are a mixed 4-6, and Georgia State is 1-4 within the Solar Belt.
Have to know: The Rebels have one of many extra winnable remaining SEC schedules among the many contenders, with back-to-back journeys to Georgia and Oklahoma their largest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels even have one thing key to impressing the choice committee: two quarterbacks able to beginning. The play of backup quarterbacks is vital to the choice course of (it saved undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023 however helped Ohio State in throughout the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is greater than able to main a workforce towards an SEC title run.
Hardest remaining recreation: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels even have an Oct. 25 journey to Oklahoma, however it’s unclear if the Sooners may have injured beginning quarterback John Mateer again by then (unlikely).
Zavier Mincey and the remainder of the Alabama protection put the clamps on Vanderbilt in Saturday’s win. David Leong-Imagn Photographs
Why they might be right here: The Tide beat Vanderbilt and continued to point out measurable enchancment since a season-opening loss at Florida State. Alabama has now earned back-to-back wins in opposition to ranked opponents, together with on the highway in opposition to Georgia. As a result of Florida State misplaced to Miami and now has two losses, the Noles’ season-opening win in opposition to Alabama will probably be much less of an element within the committee assembly room. Their information are now not comparable, which opens the door for the committee members to ignore that tiebreaker of their protocol.
Why they might be increased: Each workforce ranked forward of Alabama is undefeated, so if the committee goes to push the Tide forward of considered one of them, it could be as a result of it values wins in opposition to Georgia and Vandy greater than it does a few of the contenders above Alabama — which is feasible. However FSU dropping to Miami on Saturday doesn’t assist the Tide’s case. A variety of it could depend upon the place the committee had Georgia, Vandy and FSU ranked.
Have to know: Heading into Saturday, Alabama had the most effective probability of any workforce within the SEC to achieve the convention title recreation (53.4%) and win it (34.5%).
Hardest remaining recreation: Oct. 11 at Missouri. The undefeated Tigers had a bye week to arrange, they’ll have home-field benefit, and so they would be the third straight ranked opponent Alabama faces. The Tide at the very least get Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma at house.
Why they might be right here: The undefeated Sooners beat Kent State with backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who was enjoying for injured starter John Mateer. Beating a 1-4 Mid-American workforce isn’t going to earn the Sooners any factors with committee members, however the group will respect the play of OU’s backup quarterback and the actual fact the Sooners nonetheless left little question they have been the higher workforce. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win in opposition to Michigan stays one of many higher nonconference wins, because the Wolverines beat Wisconsin and have gained three straight.
Why they might be increased: The Sooners are undefeated, and Alabama’s loss to Florida State took one other hit on Saturday night time when the Noles misplaced to the Canes. The win in opposition to Michigan is a nonconference enhance Alabama doesn’t have. This may settle itself on the sector on Nov. 15 in Tuscaloosa if it doesn’t earlier than then.
Have to know: Six of Oklahoma’s subsequent seven opponents are ranked, and it’s nonetheless unclear if Mateer will probably be cleared to play in time for Saturday’s Purple River Rivalry recreation. The committee’s protocol requires consideration of things corresponding to accidents to key gamers. So long as Mateer is out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based mostly on in the event that they seem like a top-12 workforce with Hawkins within the lineup. OU has some margin for error, and it has loads of alternatives to compensate for a loss or two.
Hardest remaining recreation: Take your decide. The Sooners might be dealing with rival Texas on Saturday with out Mateer, however the most effective workforce they’ll face proper now seems like Ole Miss on Oct. 25. OU may have home-field benefit, however the Rebels could be essentially the most full and constant workforce within the SEC.
Why they might be right here: The Bulldogs did what they have been anticipated to do: They beat an unranked Kentucky workforce that is still winless in SEC play. The Sept. 13 extra time win at Tennessee is the spotlight of Georgia’s playoff résumé to this point. The shut loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 will hold the Dawgs behind the Tide within the rating due to the head-to-head end result so long as the information are comparable, which they nonetheless are after Alabama beat Vanderbilt on Saturday. That very same tiebreaker will hold Georgia forward of the Vols.
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Why they might be decrease: The committee may have the Hoosiers ranked increased as a result of they’re undefeated. Wins in opposition to Austin Peay and Marshall additionally aren’t doing something to assist Georgia’s résumé.
Have to know: ESPN’s FPI initiatives Georgia will win every of its remaining video games. The regular-season finale in opposition to rival Georgia Tech may impression seeding as a result of the Yellow Jackets are in place to play for the ACC championship. If Georgia will get a win in opposition to the ACC champs or runner-up, Georgia may earn the upper seed on the Jackets’ expense due to the head-to-head end result. That would imply the distinction between a house recreation and a first-round bye.
Hardest remaining recreation: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels, who had a bye week earlier than internet hosting Washington State on Oct. 11, ought to be undefeated heading into Athens.
Why they might be right here: The Hoosiers had a bye week earlier than a tough journey to Oregon, and so they’re coming off back-to-back Huge Ten wins in opposition to Illinois and Iowa. The jaw-dropping efficiency within the 63-10 beatdown of the Illini is essentially the most spectacular win on IU’s résumé, however many of the groups ranked increased have defeated a extra elite opponent. The committee members would know, although, that it’s notoriously tough to win at Iowa.
Why they might be increased: In contrast to a number of groups listed above, Indiana hasn’t misplaced — and for essentially the most half, it has seemed good within the course of. The committee would additionally word that the Hoosiers entered Saturday No. 5 in defensive effectivity and No. 17 in offensive effectivity.
Have to know: Indiana doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan throughout the common season, however it has a tougher path to the playoff with journeys to Oregon and Penn State. If the Hoosiers end 10-2, they are going to be in a precarious playoff place due to their nonconference schedule (Previous Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State).
Hardest remaining recreation: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Hoosiers may earn the most effective wins within the nation, and this system may attain a brand new degree with an upset on Saturday.
Texas Tech defenders Brenden Jordan (7) and Ben Roberts (13) have a good time a turnover in opposition to Houston. Thomas Shea/Imagn Photographs
Why they might be right here: The undefeated Purple Raiders earned a highway win in opposition to beforehand undefeated Houston, and so they even have a convincing 34-10 highway win in opposition to Utah. The committee would think about that Texas Tech asserted itself in opposition to two respectable convention opponents and did it on the highway. The Purple Raiders additionally bought beginning quarterback Behren Morton again on Saturday from harm. Texas Tech bought a lift within the rating this week on the expense of Penn State, which fell out completely after its highway loss to UCLA.
Why they might be decrease: Kent State is 1-4, Oregon State is 0-6 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff is an FCS workforce. The committee additionally tracks opponents’ opponents — and Houston doesn’t have any spectacular wins. Despite the fact that the Vols have one loss, the committee may deem them the higher workforce and provides them the sting for beating Syracuse and Mississippi State.
Have to know: Heading into Week 6, Texas Tech had the most effective probability of reaching the Huge 12 title recreation (52.3%) and the most effective probability to win it (31.5%), in accordance with ESPN Analytics.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. With Friday night time’s win in opposition to West Virginia, BYU stays undefeated, leaving Texas Tech and BYU as the one Huge 12 groups nonetheless undefeated general.
Why they might be right here: The Vols had a bye week, however the extra time highway win at Mississippi State and the season-opening win in opposition to Syracuse are maintaining them in rivalry proper now. The 45-26 win in opposition to the Orange is best than another contenders’ nonconference wins — and the committee will comprehend it got here in opposition to a wholesome beginning quarterback, Steve Angeli. With Angeli out and injured, although, Syracuse has fallen to 3-3. The extra time loss to Georgia is hardly a “bad loss,” however the Vols may use some true assertion wins within the second half of the season to maneuver right into a safer spot.
Why they might be increased: The committee has ranked one-loss groups forward of undefeated groups earlier than, and it may merely be a matter of the group believing Tennessee has a greater mixture of wins and expertise.
Have to know: Coming into Week 6, ESPN’s FPI projected the Vols will win every of their remaining video games besides the Oct. 18 journey to Alabama. If that have been to carry true, the Vols would have a powerful case to return to the playoff at 10-2 however wouldn’t be a lock. What if Notre Dame finishes 10-2? They’d each have good losses, however the Vols may win the résumé battle. Eye check will matter, too.
Hardest remaining recreation: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide are getting higher every week, however they are going to be coming house from a troublesome highway journey to Mizzou. If Alabama loses that recreation, it is going to be beneath super strain in opposition to the Vols to keep away from a 3rd loss. If the Tide win, they are going to be bringing some main playoff momentum house.
Why they might be right here: The committee would additionally most likely think about undefeated Georgia Tech for this spot, however its protocol additionally asks it to check widespread opponents with out incentivizing margin of victory. Georgia Tech beat Clemson at house by three factors, and LSU beat the Tigers at Clemson by a landing. The truth that LSU needed to go on the highway would give it a slight edge, however the committee would additionally know that Georgia Tech wanted extra time to beat Wake Forest, and the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that recreation that might have given the Demon Deacons a vital first down. The missed name allowed Georgia Tech to increase its drive and win in extra time.
Why they might be decrease: LSU didn’t look very similar to a playoff workforce in its 24-19 loss at Ole Miss on Sept. 27. The offense struggled, and the protection gave up too many large performs. The committee may favor Georgia Tech extra as a result of it hasn’t misplaced and quarterback Haynes King has been one of many hardest within the nation.
Have to know: If the playoff have been at this time, LSU would get bumped out of the CFP throughout the seeding course of to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked convention champion, which is assured a spot within the area.
Hardest remaining recreation: Nov. 8 at Alabama. LSU is coming into a season-defining stretch, with three of its subsequent 4 video games in opposition to ranked opponents. The Oct. 18 journey to Vandy gained’t be simple, however Bama simply wrote the blueprint to beat the Commodores. LSU will get Texas A&M at house.
Bracket
Primarily based on the rankings above, the seeding could be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)No. 2 Ohio State (Huge Ten champ)No. 3 OregonNo. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round video games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole MissNo. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 AlabamaNo. 10 Texas Tech (Huge 12 champ) at No. 7 OklahomaNo. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal video games
On the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Offered by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&MNo. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 OregonNo. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio StateNo. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
