Mike ClaySep 5, 2025, 07:01 AM ET
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Mike Clay is a senior author for fantasy soccer and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Corridor of Fame. His projections energy the ESPN Fantasy Soccer sport, and he additionally seems on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Soccer podcast.
Welcome to the Fantasy Soccer Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys on the Eagles.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and, after all, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to enable you with all kinds of decision-making, together with sit/begin selections, last-minute waiver provides and lineup decisions.
Moreover, we have now folded the Shadow Report, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns under. Utilizing our play-by-play information, we’re in a position to determine defensive schemes and the place every vast receiver and cornerback traces up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we are able to provide the very best projections, rankings, sit/begin recommendation and waiver wire solutions every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively customary scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Ok, 1 D/ST), though I’ll usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for at the very least 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is routinely decided utilizing a proprietary metric that elements in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor’s notice: Projections and rankings will align virtually completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant is likely to be ranked barely greater or decrease due to different elements, together with upside or danger. This column is topic to updates in the course of the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings will likely be up to date on the location and projections will at all times be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NOPIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI
Projected rating: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB7
19.0
Nice
QB26
14.9
Nice
RB2
19.6
Poor
RB8
17.3
Common
RB42
7.8
Common
WR12
16.1
Nice
WR11
16.0
Nice
WR25
13.5
Nice
WR53
10.2
Nice
TE20
8.8
Common
TE17
8.5
Good
DST16
5.7
Common
DST26
4.0
Poor
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka
Shadow Report: Count on A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s high nook shadowed most weeks final season, together with a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a robust 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets within the sport. Evans was out for the Week 8 assembly between the groups, however Terrell additionally shadowed him in Week 5 again in 2022 (the place Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), in addition to in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.
Some fast math reveals that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG within the 4 conferences with Terrell, having reached 20 factors twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan each out, Evans will likely be Mayfield’s high goal and Terrell hasn’t been a lot of a detriment to his success. Evans must be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie operating mate Egbuka also needs to be in lineups.
Over/below: 49.5 (4th highest)Win likelihood: Buccaneers 64% (seventh highest)
Projected rating: Bengals 27, Browns 20
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB5
20.0
Good
QB28
14.8
Good
RB7
17.6
Shaky
RB19
14.7
Common
RB37
8.8
Common
WR1
19.8
Common
WR13
15.4
Common
WR16
14.9
Poor
WR50
10.7
Poor
TE8
11.2
Nice
DST13
6.0
Nice
DST24
4.1
Common
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku
Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has but to signal with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford performed six full video games because the group’s lead again final season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy factors. He was additionally the group’s lead again for many of 2023 and completed sixteenth in RB fantasy factors (twenty fifth in PPG) whereas piling up 1,132 yards and 9 TDs. It’s but to be seen how a lot Sampson will contribute, however Ford is protected to view as a RB2/flex choice this week towards a suspect Bengals protection.
Over/below: 47 (sixth highest)Win likelihood: Bengals 73% (third highest)
Projected rating: Colts 23, Dolphins 22
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB15
17.2
Poor
QB20
15.4
Common
RB5
18.0
Shaky
RB6
17.7
Good
RB44
7.0
Good
WR14
15.1
Common
WR31
13.0
Common
WR41
12.0
Common
WR51
10.7
Common
TE9
9.9
Good
TE22
8.0
Good
DST7
6.6
Common
DST19
5.3
Good
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Shadow Report: Free company and accidents have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, just lately signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. because the possible Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a quick begin with Daniel Jones below middle. Improve the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight finish Tyler Warren additionally makes for a tremendous beginning choice in his NFL debut.
Over/below: 44.8 (ninth highest)Win likelihood: Colts 55% (14th highest)
Projected rating: Patriots 25, Raiders 19
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB10
18.0
Common
QB29
15.0
Common
RB9
17.5
Good
RB20
14.3
Shaky
RB30
11.2
Shaky
WR35
12.9
Shaky
WR42
12.2
Common
WR59
8.5
Common
TE1
15.4
Common
TE16
8.8
Nice
DST9
6.4
Nice
DST22
4.3
Nice
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
Over/below: 44.2 (eleventh highest)Win likelihood: Patriots 69% (4th highest)
Projected rating: Cardinals 24, Saints 19
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB9
18.3
Common
QB30
14.1
Shaky
RB12
15.7
Good
RB15
15.3
Good
RB43
7.7
Good
WR21
13.9
Nice
WR37
12.4
Shaky
WR52
10.6
Shaky
TE2
15.0
Shaky
TE27
7.3
Poor
DST3
7.0
Good
DST29
3.6
Common
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first take a look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round decide — appeared in seven video games as a rookie and didn’t present notably properly. He accomplished 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per try and managed 4 TDs and 5 INTs. Particularly towards an improved Arizona protection, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ go catchers very dangerous fantasy performs. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on 5 profession targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) aren’t any higher than flex choices in deeper leagues.
Over/below: 42.1 (fifteenth highest)Win likelihood: Cardinals 68% (sixth highest)
Projected rating: Steelers 20, Jets 18
Lineup locks: Breece Corridor, DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy scoop: The bottom projected sport whole of the week options two good (maybe nice) defenses and never many palatable fantasy starters. That features the operating backs on each groups. You’d be onerous pressed to bench Corridor after choosing him within the fourth-ish spherical (which is why he’s listed as a lineup lock regardless of the powerful matchup), however a Week 1 dud shouldn’t be a shock — particularly with Braelon Allen anticipated to be concerned. Jaylen Warren will work because the lead again in Pittsburgh, however he’s by no means beforehand operated as a function again and figures to defer some work to Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson. Warren is finest valued as a flex.
Over/below: 38 (Lowest)Win likelihood: Steelers 60% (tenth highest)
Projected rating: Commanders 26, Giants 20
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB3
21.0
Common
QB17
16.0
Shaky
RB28
12.6
Nice
RB32
10.3
Good
RB34
9.5
Good
RB38
8.7
Nice
WR3
19.0
Poor
WR20
13.8
Common
WR45
11.9
Common
WR55
9.7
Poor
WR62
7.3
Poor
TE19
7.9
Poor
TE23
7.6
Common
DST6
6.6
Nice
DST20
5.2
Shaky
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy scoop: In the event you drafted properly, you shouldn’t have to depend on any of the operating backs on this sport … and that’s a very good factor. Tracy is the very best and most secure choice of the bunch, however he didn’t sport a lot upside final season and it’s but to be seen how a lot work he’ll defer to fourth-round rookie Cam Skattebo. Washington traded away Brian Robinson Jr. final month and we could possibly be a three-headed committee with Austin Ekeler, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. Ekeler’s receiving chops make him the most secure choice of the three, whereas Croskey-Merritt is most the explosive and Rodriguez the very best wager to steal a landing.
Shadow Report: Marshon Lattimore may journey with Nabers within the opener. The 2 didn’t meet final season, however Lattimore has a historical past of shadowing high receivers and did so towards each A.J. Brown and Mike Evans after becoming a member of Washington late final season. Regardless of Lattimore’s spectacular profession résumé, he hasn’t been fairly as efficient (or persistently wholesome) in recent times and his presence isn’t sufficient to have an effect on Nabers’ fantasy attraction.
Over/below: 46.2 (seventh highest)Win likelihood: Commanders 68% (fifth highest)
Projected rating: Jaguars 24, Panthers 21
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB11
18.0
Nice
QB19
15.6
Good
RB14
15.4
Nice
RB33
10.3
Nice
RB40
8.6
Nice
WR10
16.3
Good
WR22
13.8
Common
WR36
12.9
Good
WR54
9.8
Common
TE18
8.4
Good
DST8
6.4
Common
DST30
3.6
Common
Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Brian Thomas Jr., Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter
Fantasy scoop: Selecting between the Jaguars’ operating backs in your Week 1 RB2/flex slot? Good luck. The Jacksonville backfield is among the most unsure conditions within the sport, with veterans Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby battling with rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. for work. The most certainly Week 1 situation is that Bigsby will tempo the unit in carries and objective line work, with Etienne a hair behind in carries and probably the most concerned again in passing conditions. Tuten won’t see a lot work in his professional debut, nevertheless it won’t take him lengthy to emerge if both or each of the veterans wrestle. That is an interesting matchup, so in case you’re actually digging deep, Etienne could be your best choice from this quartet.
Over/below: 45 (eighth highest)Win likelihood: Jaguars 60% (ninth highest)
Projected rating: Broncos 25, Titans 18
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB8
18.5
Common
QB31
13.7
Good
RB22
12.9
Common
RB27
12.8
Good
RB31
10.6
Good
WR27
13.4
Shaky
WR30
13.0
Good
WR57
8.8
Shaky
TE10
9.9
Poor
TE21
7.7
Common
DST2
7.8
Nice
DST23
4.2
Shaky
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, Tony Pollard, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram
Shadow Report: A sluggish begin to the season could possibly be to ensure that each No. 1 receivers, as shadow protection from L’Jarius Sneed (on Sutton) and Pat Surtain II (on Ridley) is possible. Sneed missed most of 2024 attributable to harm, however he shadowed usually previous to getting harm, together with matchups with Garrett Wilson and Tyreek Hill. Sneed was elite as a full-time shadow nook with the Chiefs in 2023 (together with holding Sutton to a single catch on 18 routes in two conferences). Maybe the league’s high nook, Surtain shadowed in eight video games final season and held six of these opposing receivers to single-digit fantasy factors. Each Sutton and Ridley can stay in lineups, however there’s added “bust risk” on this matchup.
Over/below: 43 (14th highest)Win likelihood: Broncos 75% (Highest)
Projected rating: Seahawks 23, 49ers 22
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB12
16.8
Shaky
QB23
15.3
Common
RB4
17.7
Common
RB16
15.0
Nice
RB39
8.6
Nice
WR17
14.7
Shaky
WR33
13.1
Good
WR34
12.5
Good
WR38
12.3
Shaky
TE3
13.7
Shaky
TE28
7.1
Shaky
DST11
6.3
Good
DST21
5.1
Common
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: The 49ers’ WR room is in a state of chaos, with Brandon Aiyuk (PUP), Demarcus Robinson (suspension) and Jacob Cowing (IR) all out, and Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins each unsure for the opener. Assuming Jennings is ready to play, he and Ricky Pearsall must be closely utilized, and each make for viable WR3/flex choices. Jennings carries some danger after lacking substantial offseason work, however final season’s 25% goal share suggests he’ll stay an enormous a part of the offense. Pearsall got here on robust on the finish of 2024 and has operated because the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver all through the offseason. The 2024 first-round decide is well-positioned for a breakout marketing campaign.
Over/below: 44.8 (tenth highest)Win likelihood: Seahawks 56% (thirteenth highest)
Projected rating: Lions 26, Packers 23
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB24
15.3
Poor
QB27
14.9
Nice
RB3
18.4
Common
RB11
15.7
Common
RB29
12.3
Common
WR5
17.2
Poor
WR32
12.9
Poor
WR39
12.3
Good
WR48
11.2
Good
WR60
8.4
Good
TE6
11.3
Common
TE12
9.4
Shaky
DST14
5.9
Poor
DST27
3.9
Poor
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: With Christian Watson (PUP) sidelined and Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Savion Williams all battling accidents of their very own, the Packers’ WR room is a little bit of a thriller right here in Week 1. One factor we should always be capable to depend on, nevertheless, is an enormous position for rookie Matthew Golden. The speedy first-round decide is anticipated to right away slide in as Jordan Love‘s top perimeter target, with Romeo Doubs on the opposite boundary and, if healthy, Reed in the slot. Facing off with Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed won’t be a simple job, however Inexperienced Bay figures to be throwing the ball lots in what must be a aggressive sport towards Detroit. Golden is your finest fantasy choice from this Inexperienced Bay WR room and could be valued as a WR3/flex.
Over/below: 49 (fifth highest)Win likelihood: Lions 59% (eleventh highest)
Projected rating: Rams 23, Texans 21
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB16
16.4
Common
QB25
14.9
Poor
RB13
15.5
Poor
RB35
9.3
Common
WR6
17.4
Poor
WR7
16.8
Shaky
WR19
14.4
Shaky
WR58
8.7
Poor
WR61
7.9
Poor
TE25
7.6
Nice
DST15
5.9
Shaky
DST17
5.8
Common
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Joe Mixon (PUP, foot) is out for at the very least the primary 4 video games of the season, which opens the door for some mixture of Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale and rookie Woody Marks to deal with Houston’s backfield workload. Chubb is the most secure wager to deal with the majority of the carries towards the Rams, however gained’t get a lot work as a receiver. It’s unclear if the 29-year-old could be efficient after struggling on 107 touches in Cleveland final season. You possibly can seemingly do higher in your flex slot. Pierce and pass-catching specialist Marks are intriguing wild playing cards and, whereas neither must be in fantasy lineups this week, they make for discover end-of-bench stashes.
Over/below: 44 (thirteenth highest)Win likelihood: Rams 58% (twelfth highest)
Projected rating: Ravens 28, Payments 27
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB2
21.9
Good
QB4
20.8
Shaky
RB10
16.1
Common
RB18
14.6
Poor
WR18
14.5
Common
WR44
11.8
Shaky
WR47
10.8
Shaky
WR56
9.5
Common
WR63
7.2
Shaky
TE4
11.8
Common
TE15
8.8
Shaky
DST25
4.0
Poor
DST32
3.1
Poor
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, James Cook dinner, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Fantasy scoop: This sport is pretty simple from a fantasy standpoint, leaving Buffalo’s vast receivers as the one conundrum when evaluating your WR3/flex choices. Khalil Shakir is the most secure of the bunch, however he lacks upside, primarily attributable to a really restricted position close to the objective line (solely seven profession TDs and 5 profession finish zone targets). Coleman had an uneven rookie season, however the 2024 second-round decide is a breakout candidate and will rapidly emerge as Allen’s high goal. Each receivers are within the flex dialogue, however may have their arms full towards a terrific Baltimore protection that features cornerbacks Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey and, if he’s in a position to play, Jaire Alexander.
Over/below: 54.5 (Highest)Win likelihood: Ravens 53% (fifteenth highest)
Projected rating: Bears 22, Vikings 22
RANK
PLAYER
PROJ
MATCHUP
QB18
16.3
Poor
QB22
15.4
Poor
RB23
12.6
Common
RB26
12.5
Nice
RB41
8.0
Nice
WR2
20.2
Poor
WR24
13.5
Nice
WR40
12.3
Nice
WR46
11.2
Poor
TE7
11.3
Common
TE14
8.8
Common
DST4
6.9
Good
DST5
6.7
Common
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson
Shadow Report: Jaylon Johnson is a robust wager to shadow Jefferson this week. When these groups met in Week 12 final season, Johnson shadowed Jefferson on 19 of his 37 routes, together with 17 of 23 on the perimeter and two of 14 within the slot. Jefferson was held in test, posting a 2-27-0 receiving line on 5 targets. Johnson shadowed solely a part of the time within the Week 15 showdown and Jefferson was higher (7-73-1 on 13 targets), although most of that sport was spent away from Johnson’s protection. Johnson is an effective nook, so maybe the “bust” potential is greater than normal for Jefferson, however you’re clearly beginning the very best participant in your fantasy group.
Fantasy scoop: Talking of Minnesota receivers, Jordan Addison is suspended for 3 video games to open the 2025 season, which positions veteran Adam Thielen for a large position in his return to the group. Jalen Nailor and rookie Tai Felton very properly might think about, however Thielen confirmed he nonetheless had life late final season when he averaged 7.7 targets per sport whereas posting 15-plus fantasy factors in 4 of his remaining six outings with Carolina. We don’t wish to get too carried away right here, as Thielen will likely be no greater than third in line for targets (behind Jefferson and Hockenson) and is dealing with a very good Chicago protection. Nonetheless, in case you’re eyeing a WR3/flex lottery ticket, Thielen is a viable choice.
Over/below: 44.1 (twelfth highest)Win likelihood: Bears 51% (Lowest)
