Mike ClayMay 14, 2025, 06:43 AM ET
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Mike Clay is a senior author for fantasy soccer and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Corridor of Fame. His projections energy the ESPN Fantasy Soccer recreation, and he additionally seems on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Soccer podcast.
It’s 2025 NFL schedule launch day, which implies we’re one step nearer to the beginning of the season.
How does this schedule influence the fantasy soccer panorama? Which gamers have it the simplest and hardest? Which 14 groups will make the NFL playoffs? How about an early have a look at the 2026 draft order?
Some housekeeping earlier than diving into this. First, whereas Week 18 is not part of the schedule in newly created and public ESPN fantasy soccer leagues, it’s nonetheless included in reactivated leagues, so it stays part of this research (it has minimal influence on the outcomes anyway). Subsequent, my power of schedule analysis will not be based mostly on ultimate 2024 data, which is usually what you’ll see in the sort of column. There was a ton of roster motion already this offseason and injured gamers will return to motion, so all of that’s factored into every crew’s 2025 prospects. My analysis of every roster — not final 12 months’s manufacturing — is what I exploit to generate the simplest and hardest schedules.
The evaluation under is the next step in getting ready for the 2025 NFL and fantasy soccer seasons.
Arizona topping this class is fairly notable, because the Cardinals had the toughest schedule for each quarterbacks and tight ends final season, and had the toughest total fantasy schedule for many of 2024, previous to it lightening up down the stretch.
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This season, Arizona is ready up with 9 matchups in opposition to defenses I’ve ranked among the many worst 10 models within the league (49ers twice, Jaguars, Cowboys, Bengals, Panthers, Saints, Falcons, Titans). The one top-10 projected protection they’ll face is Houston.
Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are already outstanding draft day targets, however all 4 get a lift as a result of favorable schedule.
Others with favorable fantasy schedules: Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints.
The Bengals lead this class and it’s not even shut. Cincinnati faces one protection projected to complete within the backside 10 of the league (Jaguars), however has six video games in opposition to the highest six projected defenses (Steelers twice, Vikings, Broncos, Lions, Patriots), in addition to two video games in opposition to Ravens protection.
The silver lining right here is that, utilizing EPA as a foundation, the Cincinnati offense had the league’s seventh-hardest slate final season, together with the toughest for huge receivers. That didn’t cease the likes of Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins from placing up elite numbers.
Others with tough fantasy schedules: Baltimore Ravens and Inexperienced Bay Packers
Positional upgrades and downgrades
Although we don’t need to get too caught up in power of schedule based mostly on the prior season’s outcomes, there’s some correlation between fantasy factors allowed by place and projected fantasy power of schedule (based mostly on 2025 rosters). The chart under exhibits every offense’s power of schedule based mostly on what their 2025 opponents allowed final season. For instance, based mostly on 2024 outcomes, the Lions are set to face the third-easiest schedule for tight ends however the third hardest for quarterbacks. (Inexperienced = straightforward; crimson = onerous.)
Offense
QB
RB
WR
TE
Offense
QB
RB
WR
TE
2
4
16
9
18
27
25
11
20
1
4
12
6
7
1
30
29
31
30
1
21
25
23
26
19
32
22
4
7
13
9
9
7
6
2
21
26
21
18
24
25
23
6
23
10
16
26
6
28
23
16
12
3
2
20
18
27
19
32
8
32
20
21
32
31
18
27
31
4
10
3
2
12
30
28
18
15
12
12
26
30
26
24
3
22
29
14
5
22
15
5
24
14
3
13
17
1
9
18
12
5
5
8
15
16
17
29
20
17
8
7
22
11
14
31
16
12
11
10
7
7
22
15
28
24
28
11
29
Listed below are some upgrades and downgrades based mostly solely on this chart, although you’ll discover some correlation with the earlier evaluation:
Upgrades
QB: C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Tyler Shough, Justin FieldsRB: Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker III, James Conner, Christian McCaffreyWR: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Tetairoa McMillanTE: Mark Andrews, Mason Taylor
Downgrades
QB: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jared GoffRB: James Cook dinner, Derrick Henry, RJ Harvey, Kaleb JohnsonWR: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric TillmanTE: Jake Ferguson, Theo Johnson, Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz
Best total schedule: San Francisco 49ers (win whole: 10.5)
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
The rest of prime 5 best schedules: Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks
Hardest total schedule: Detroit Lions (win whole: 10.5)
No shock right here, because the Lions are the defending champions of the once-again super-tough NFC North. Along with the six video games in opposition to the Vikings, Packers and improved Bears, the Lions will face off with the NFC East and AFC North divisions. Detroit’s trio of distinctive video games is about has onerous as you may get: Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams.
One optimistic for the Lions is that the remainder of the division (and a number of other 1-seed contenders) can even face a tricky slate.
The rest of prime 5 hardest schedules: Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and Inexperienced Bay Packers
Derrick Henry and the Ravens are among the many largest favorites to make the NFL playoffs, however will they earn the coveted No. 1 seed within the AFC? Greg Fiume/Getty Photos
Projected AFC seeds
All playoff odds supplied by ESPN BET.
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1. Ravens (-500); 2. Payments (-750); 3. Chiefs (-450); 4. Texans (-155); 5. Broncos (-110); 6. Bengals (-185); 7. Patriots (+155)
The Ravens get a tiny nod over the Payments right here, however it’s a wide-open race between two stellar franchises that stay in terrific form on paper, particularly offensively. Baltimore has gained double-digit video games six of the previous seven seasons (together with not less than 12 the previous two years), whereas Buffalo has gained not less than 11 video games six seasons in a row. Maybe the Chiefs are headed for some regression after so many shut wins had been adopted by a shellacking by the Eagles in February, however it’s onerous to doubt a franchise that has been to 5 of the previous six Tremendous Bowls, together with three in a row. Houston stays the favourite within the South with Stroud coming into Yr 3 and with one of many league’s most loaded defenses. Denver additionally has an excellent protection and the offense could possibly be even higher with new instruments added for second-year QB Bo Nix. The Bengals have missed the playoffs two years in a row regardless of having gained nine-plus video games in 4 consecutive seasons, however the Burrow-led elite offense ought to have the ability to offset a shaky protection this time round. And don’t sleep on a Patriots crew that’s immediately stacked on protection and has a second-year QB (Drake Maye) and improved teaching (Mike Vrabel). The Steelers, Chargers, Dolphins and maybe Colts are very a lot within the dialog right here as properly.
Projected NFC seeds
1. Lions (-250); 2. Eagles (-450); 3. Buccaneers (-165); 4. Rams (-170); 5. Packers (-125); 6. Commanders (-150); 7. Vikings (+130)
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Accidents completely decimated the Lions’ protection in 2024, which led to a fast playoff exit after a dominant 15-2 common season. Wholesome and nonetheless stacked on paper coming into 2025, Detroit is primed to contend for the highest seed once more this season regardless of powerful divisional opposition. The Tremendous Bowl champion Eagles took successful on protection throughout free company, however the offense stays elite. Tampa Bay has discovered its quarterback in Baker Mayfield and is eyeing its fifth straight division title and sixth straight journey to the postseason. The Rams are the very best they’ve been on paper in years, particularly on protection, and we all know they’re properly coached beneath Sean McVay. The Packers are strong on each side of the ball and the offense could possibly be even higher with improved targets and a completely wholesome Jordan Love. Protection is the Commanders’ main crimson flag, however Jayden Daniels seems to be the actual deal and might carry this crew far. Whereas the Vikings stay elite on protection, a tricky schedule mixed with a brand new QB in J.J. McCarthy might result in a slight step again. Control the Cardinals (straightforward schedule and a stacked defensive position) as an NFC sleeper.
Projected 2026 NFL draft prime 5
1. Browns; 2. Saints; 3. Raiders; 4. Titans; 5. Jets
The Browns’ protection took a large step backward final season and the offense is in flux with 4 quarterbacks (Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders) competing for the beginning job. The crew’s subsequent franchise QB might come through the No. 1 total choose of the 2026 draft. Talking of groups with quarterback considerations, the Saints will doubtless flip to rookie Tyler Shough as their alternative for retired Derek Carr. New coach Kellen Moore may have his work minimize out for him this season. It’s onerous to think about a Pete Carroll crew ending this low within the standings, however even with the improve to Geno Smith at quarterback and the presence of Maxx Crosby on protection, this has the seems to be of a roster that also has too many weak factors. The Titans’ protection isn’t very attractive and the offense might be a piece in progress as rookie QB Cam Ward will get acclimated to the professionals. The Jets fumbled away a stacked roster final season and, although the protection ought to be strong, the Justin Fields-led offense figures to be restricted.
