When Will Shortages End? Here’s Why Forecasts Are Often Wrong

Not for the first time this year, analysts are optimistic that supply shortages are easing and will be fixed within three to six months. There is reason to be skeptical of this figure—even without cheering for tighter monetary policy.

Delivery times for firms ordering supplies have stopped getting longer, according to purchasing managers’ surveys in the U.S. and Europe released this week. Global shipping rates seem to have peaked, and Asian factories are reopening. Some retailers say they are already well-stocked ahead of the Christmas season.